Two weeks ago Reuters released an article suggesting that the PC industry was on the decline. The story referenced a report from technology research company Gartner, which had previously forecast that slower growth ahead (around 5.7% annual unit growth) will usher in a wave of consolidation. (Give them some credit for prescience; IBM's (NYSE:IBM) departure from the PC business wasn't far behind.) Others such as Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD) have also cut their outlook for PC growth.
Soon after, though, another report from Forrester research challenged the pessimistic views and projected that the global PC market would double to 1.3 billion from today's 575 million within the next five years. The dichotomy reminds me of my local weather forecasters: One is calling for snowy conditions and temperatures plummeting into the teens (which I would love for Christmas), while another is predicting rain and relatively balmy temperatures in the upper 40s.
Even if the market decides to follow the slower-growth path for the next few years, IBM's abrupt (though some might say predictable) exit from the business will leave a bigger share of the pie to former rivals. Former mergers -- such as Gateway (NYSE:GTW) and eMachines or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and Compaq -- created a combined entity that was less than the sum of its market share parts. Manufacturers such as Gateway and Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) stand to be among the obvious recipients.
This morning Gateway released news that gives shareholders another reason to be excited. After previously signing deals with CompUSA and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), the company has now announced a new partnership that will place Gateway notebook and desktop computers in over 600 Circuit City (NYSE:CC) locations by next year. This expansion provides Gateway exposure to the retail sales channel that it desperately needs, without the added expense that sunk its own retail operations earlier this year. For its part, Circuit City is gaining something that is always in demand, added customer selection.
Once the nation's leader in terms of PC sales, Gateway's lack of focus has led to a clobbering at the hands of Dell and Hewlett-Packard. With the purchase of the value-priced eMachines brand, though, the company appears to be returning to its roots. Gateway may not recapture its glory days anytime soon. But with new distribution allies, probable market share gains in the wake of IBM's exit and recently raised guidance painting a brighter outlook, it may not be languishing in penny-stock territory much longer either.
Best Buy is one of Dell's companions in Motley Fool Stock Advisor . Find which other companies have made the cut by subscribing for six months, risk-free.
Fool contributor Nathan Slaughter is the proud owner of a new Dell computer but is not the owner of any company mentioned here.
