If you own stock in Pfizer
Motley Fool Income Investor
recommendation Merck's
Pfizer shareholders were breathing a sigh of relief when a study showed that naproxen (a COX-2 inhibitor sold over the counter by Bayer
Instead of enjoying the fresh air, Pfizer shareholders should have been asking the Wicked Witch's magic mirror, "Mirror, mirror on the wall: Where is the next foot to our hindquarters coming from?" The answer was the National Cancer Institute cancer study that linked Celebrex to cardiovascular problems.
The witch's magic mirror has one more negative to reveal, too. The FDA is going to review all COX-2 inhibitors and has asked doctors to limit prescribing Bextra and Celebrex to patients who cannot tolerate nonsteroid painkillers such as ibuprofen (which, by the way, is linked to gastrointestinal bleeding in some patients).
So, what is a Pfizer shareholder to do? First, check for and remove any "kick me" signs from your back. Second, realize that the COX-2 news will not die down before the FDA reports its findings in February. Third, don't expect Pfizer to produce $1.65 a share in free cash flow the way it did over the last 12 months. Sales will be soft for COX-2 inhibitors, and that bodes poorly for 2005.
There is no catalyst right now to ignite the stock, although the 2.9% dividend will provide some pain relief -- as will the data that show that Celebrex doses below 400mg (the majority of doses) are safe.
For conservative investors, the answer is clear: Stand aside. But for those looking for a deep value play, Pfizer, selling at a down-to-earth 12 times forward earnings, is worth watching.
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Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned but has been prescribed Celebrex -- and found it effective.
