Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK) racked up impressive quarterly performances throughout 2004. The fourth quarter was no different, capping an outstanding year. Fourth-quarter and yearly revenues were up 108% and 77%, respectively. The company earned $9.2 million in the fourth quarter, which was as much as it earned in all of 2003!
Deckers Outdoor, my recommendation for Hidden Gems, has three product lines. Its original brand, Teva, cranked out a new assortment of sports sandals, thongs (the ones for your feet!), and closed-toe shoes and grew sales 15% for the year. Even though stores like Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) couldn't keep them in stock, UGG eclipsed Teva as the flagship brand by generating $116 million in sales. The Simple brand turned things around in 2004 to grow after a decline in 2003.
Looking at the financial statements, accounts receivable jumped out at me. It increased 124% year over year versus the 77% increase in sales. If you are familiar with Howard Schilit's book Financial Shenanigans, you know this can be a warning sign that the company is aggressively booking sales. So here is the days sales outstanding (DSO defined as accounts receivable/sales x 365 days) trend over the past four years.
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSO | 81 days | 78 days | 56 days | 72 days |
It looks like 2003 was a low point and good year for collections. We don't need to be alarmed, but this is worth keeping an eye on because we Fools like companies with conservative accounting.
In the release, CEO Doug Otto also raised the earnings forecast for 2005 to a range of $2.45-$2.55. That's only an 8% increase from the $2.32 generated in 2004. So maybe last year was too good.
What might that mean for the stock price today? Let's take the average of the P/E ratios for Nike (NYSE:NKE) (21.4), Timberland (NYSE:TBL) (16.3), and Reebok (NYSE:RBK) (14), which is 17.2, and multiply it by the average expected earnings for 2005, $2.50. That gives us a price of $43, leading me to believe that the stock is fairly priced today. But considering all of the product extensions -- especially for the UGG brand -- that should hit their stride in 2005, I agree with Mr. Otto that momentum will stay on Deckers' side.
Fool contributor David Meier owns shares of Nike but not in the other companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
