Why Martha Is a Sure Thing

As you can imagine, I was shocked, shocked! to find out that Martha Stewart's house arrest had been lengthened by three weeks, and that she had actually agreed to the conditions, ensuring that her hated ankle bracelet won't be replaced by anything more stylish anytime soon.

Why would the fallen lifestyle queen, founder of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE:MSO) bow her head and accept another few weeks with that awful, chafing cuff? (She can't even put padding under it. Sniffle.) My guess? Because she knows she's been bad, and she knows she's been caught. The New York papers have been alleging for months that Martha has been busting out of her house arrest for unauthorized trips, such as jaunts to the Yoga instructor or parties with an insufficiently thin veneer of officiality.

Though the magnitude of the crimes isn't comparable, there's little doubt in my mind that Martha is sorry for what she's done, in the same way that former MCI (NASDAQ:MCIP) captain Bernie Ebbers is sorry, or Tyco's (NYSE:TYC) Dennis Kozlowski is sorry. She's sorry the same way my golden retriever Baccio was sorry when I'd walk in the door to find him, paws on the countertop, finishing off a $30 chunk of aged Parmigiano.

They're sorry, all right. Sorry they got caught.

But unfortunately for shareholders, Martha's disregard for the rules isn't as cute as my late puppy's. It's just more proof that Martha believes rules of any kind simply don't apply to her. And remember, Martha's in a position to snatch much more than your cheese, dear Fools.

Even if you assume her unmatchable ego and skewed sense of entitlement won't push her into future fits of law-breaking, there are plenty of perfectly legal ways that the domestic diva will continue to pick shareholders' pockets.

I've pointed it all out before. Her media empire's got a long track record of dismal performance. Her stuff at Sears Holdings' (NASDAQ:SHLD) Kmart is so hot -- or not -- that the firm gets only the guaranteed minimums. Yet Martha takes much of her rewards straight off the top, in addition to collecting guaranteed bonuses that ensure she'll get paid big, even if her waning public appeal makes paupers of everyone else. As recent history also illustrates, she's quite happy to dump piles of shares when they get frothy, leaving the starry-eyed masses to sing her praises and hold the bag.

That's exactly the kind of management I look at for in a short. Maybe I've said all I need to about the direction this thing will eventually head. From here on out, I'll be looking to Martha to help me with my greed, and to do so, I'm going to align my interests with hers, which, sadly, means betting against the company.

It looks like a decent short at today's prices, but the fatter the better, as far as I'm concerned. So let me conclude with a small, selfish plea: Buy this stock. Buy all you can. Run it up to $50. Heck, pay $100. Why not? When Martha gets back, everyone will forgive her. Right? They'll all watch her shows? Buy her magazines? Make the company profitable?

Related Foolishness:

• Take a look at why Martha's company remains out and down.
• Remember, Martha is no Stern.
• Those aren't raisins, Fool! Those are bugs in Martha's muffins.
• When the going gets tough, heads roll -- but not Martha's.
• Keep your eyes open for fancy numbers.

Seth Jayson knows Martha is clever, he's just amazed that shareholders still think that cleverness can benefit them. At the time of publication, he had positions in no company mentioned. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. Fool rules are here.