Gambling metaphors for investing are a dime a dozen. They can be misleading, because gambling is often a binary outcome -- you either win or lose. But let's use one anyway.
If, like me, you enjoy the occasional game of blackjack, you might have heard -- or uttered yourself -- this common lament: "I always hit blackjack when I'm betting the minimum!" A card counter would tell you that this happens because you're betting small at the very times that you have the best odds of beating the dealer.
Same with investing
Just the same, have you ever had a small stake on a stock that has absolutely gone crazy? In 1998, in the midst of the Asian currency crisis, I was living in Jakarta. I bought a teeny-tiny bit of Telekom Indonesia (TLK) after it had fallen from $30 to below $3 per share. But while my investment subsequently increased more than eightfold, it meant zip for my real-money portfolio. My stake was simply too small to matter.
In our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, we recommend that members diversify broadly among 20 or more stocks. Small caps can be volatile, and diversification can save you from becoming insolvent.
At the same time, however, we see the power of going double-, triple-, or even quadruple-down on certain companies when we have the highest confidence in their prospects and their prices. Let's take a look at what I mean, with the following actual five-year returns from some popular companies.
Here's how straight-up $5,000 bets on each company would have fared:
|
Company |
Five-Year Return |
Amount Invested |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sirius Satellite Radio |
(39%) |
$5,000 |
$3,020 |
|
Honeywell |
29% |
$5,000 |
$6,517 |
|
Yahoo! |
297% |
$5,000 |
$19,854 |
|
Tyco |
10% |
$5,000 |
$5,565 |
|
Kraft |
(9%) |
$5,000 |
$4,626 |
|
News Corp. |
89% |
$5,000 |
$9,494 |
|
Time Warner |
6% |
$5,000 |
$5,330 |
|
Total |
55% |
$35,000 |
$54,406 |
Now, let's suppose our investor, with the same $35,000, had put more money on the stocks he thought had more upside potential:
|
Company |
Five-Year Return |
Amount Invested |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sirius |
(39%) |
$2,000 |
$1,208 |
|
Honeywell |
29% |
$7,000 |
$9,124 |
|
Yahoo! |
297% |
$8,000 |
$31,766 |
|
Tyco |
10% |
$2,000 |
$2,226 |
|
Kraft |
(9%) |
$7,000 |
$6,477 |
|
News Corp. |
89% |
$7,000 |
$13,292 |
|
Time Warner |
6% |
$2,000 |
$2,132 |
|
Total |
88% |
$35,000 |
$66,225 |
Even though one of this investor's biggest bets turned out utterly wrong (Kraft, down 9%), he still did much better (nearly $12,000 better) than if he'd made even $5,000 purchases.
Make your money count
This should clearly illustrate how powerful proper money management is in juicing your returns -- provided you can identify the stocks with the best long-term prospects. In order to help our Hidden Gems members identify the most promising of our small-cap recommendations, each month Tom Gardner and I publish our top five best stocks for new money, in addition to our two new recommendations.
Our goal in doing so is to help our members do even better than the returns on our scorecard -- which have been gratifying thus far, topping the market 55% to 21% since the service began more than three years ago. If you're interested in seeing our most recent list of top stocks for new money now, simply try a no-strings-attached free trial. There's no obligation to subscribe.
This article was originally published on Aug. 4, 2006 as "Same Stocks, More Profit." It has been updated.
Bill Mann does not own shares of any company mentioned in this article. Time Warner and Yahoo! are Stock Advisor recommendations. Tyco is an Inside Value choice. Kraft is an Income Investor selection. The Fool's disclosure policy -- in the immortal words of Robert Palmer -- is simply irresistible.
