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Dueling Fools: Nuance Bear Rebuttal

By Jason Ramage – Updated Apr 5, 2017 at 5:03PM

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Nuance is on top ... for now.

My Dueling Fool partner Billy paints a bright picture for the future of Nuance Communications (NASDAQ:NUAN). Growth and revenue numbers look great, and we're left with the impression that these results will inevitably flow to the bottom line. This one's a no-brainer, right?

Maybe. Considring Nuance's estimated 25% long-term growth rate, the stock sure seems like a "back up the truck" kind of bargain, especially given its current valuation of about 25 times next year's earnings per share. Could there be a reason it's not trading higher?

For one, Nuance is still very early in its growth cycle, and speech software isn't nearly as ubiquitous in our lives as I expect it to be. Nuance has plenty of opportunities ahead for growth -- but so do countless other software companies. The Internet is bigger than Donald Trump's ego, yet Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) doesn't seem so thrilled with its past investment in AOL. And while a computer without a Web browser is nearly useless, when was the last time you used Netscape?

Second, achieving 20%-25% earnings-per-share growth while making acquisitions that are dilutive to existing shareholders means that the top line will need to grow even faster. If speech recognition really is tomorrow's "killer app," odds are that Nuance won't remain the top competitor in this field, especially while managing that kind of growth through acquisitions.

Ironically, one of the customers Billy mentions, AT&T (NYSE:T), is also mentioned in Nuance's third-quarter report as a competitor in its speech segment. Juggernauts IBM (NYSE:IBM), Philips (NYSE:PHG), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), and Nortel (NYSE:NT) are also specified as potential competitors.

Even Nuance's third-quarter report states under "Risk Factors" that "quarter to quarter comparisons ... are not necessarily meaningful or an accurate indicator of our future performance." The recent numbers look good on paper, but a sober analysis wouldn't extrapolate long-term trends from a few months or even a year's worth of results.

All that said, Nuance may indeed prove its mettle in the long run, but that's a speculative bet at best -- in other words, more a gamble than an investment.

You're not done with the Duel yet! Go back and read the other entries, sound off in CAPS, and then vote for the winner!

Nuance Communications is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems selection. Try this market-beating publication free for 30 days.

Fool-contributor Jason Ramage does not own shares of any companies mentioned here and resisted the urge to purchase a copy of Nuance's NaturallySpeaking simply for the irony of trying it out while writing this article. You can view his TMF profile here. Time Warner is a Stock Advisor pick. No nuances will be found in the Fool's disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

AT&T Inc. Stock Quote
AT&T Inc.
T
$16.01 (-1.42%) $0.23
International Business Machines Corporation Stock Quote
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM
$122.71 (-2.08%) $-2.60
Cisco Systems, Inc. Stock Quote
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO
$40.66 (-1.19%) $0.49
Time Warner Inc. Stock Quote
Time Warner Inc.
TWX
Koninklijke Philips N.V. Stock Quote
Koninklijke Philips N.V.
PHG
$15.86 (-4.23%) $0.70

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