Optical-networking veteran JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq: JDSU) smacked the Street's estimates silly last night, reporting more than twice the expected earnings on very impressive sales. The stock jumped 27% overnight, creating instant millionaires across the nation. Where's the complimentary champagne?
Um, not so fast. The 64% earnings improvement over last year looks great on paper, until you realize how much smoke and how many mirrors there are between the touted non-GAAP numbers and actual GAAP performance. The ever-popular stock-based compensation freebies are growing bigger than ever, and the year-ago GAAP earnings were actually 10% larger than their current counterparts.
The slingshot stock move didn't make too many investors rich, either. The price is simply back to where it was in early January. There was quite a lot of trading during the month-long dip, but unless you missed that buy-in window, you still haven't made any money in the last two and a half years.
None of JDS's sector rivals have followed that price trend. Agilent (NYSE: A) traded sideways throughout January, while EMCORE (Nasdaq: EMKR) took a brief trip through the relative stratosphere, based on strong solar-panel orders. Overall, EMCORE's been down since the start of the year. Opnext (Nasdaq: OPXT) hit the ground with a dull thud following a weak earnings report three weeks ago, and it's still trying to dust off its jacket and look like nothing horrible happened. Keep trying, guys.
Long story short, JDS shares' recent ills weren't systemic to the industry, and there weren't even any analyst downgrades on which to pin the blame. JDS did spend more than $180 million on two acquisitions to kick off and then continue the slide, but it looks like the new results were enough to dispel any doubts about more fiber-optic testing products or holographic security tags.
So where will this stock go next? I'm thinking not very far in either direction, until the next earnings report or some other major reportable event. Taking a longer view, it's nice to see that JDS can produce reliably positive earnings and four consecutive quarters of incoming cash flow. As long as the likes of Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) keep pushing out optical switches and high-speed networks, this company should do fine. Just don't expect too many get-rich-quick moves.
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