Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Six Signs of a Winner

By Rex Moore - Updated Nov 11, 2016 at 4:40PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

A look back at the telltale signs of one company's meteoric rise.

The month is October ... the year is 1988. As the underdog Los Angeles Dodgers are shocking the Oakland A's in the World Series, Progressive Insurance is trading at $26. Adjusted for splits and dividends, that's around $0.60 per share.

Today, with another baseball season gone (and the Phillies now world champs), Progressive sits around $14. In other words, it's been a 23-bagger over the past 20 years, turning a $5,000 investment into more than $118,000. That means it has quietly outperformed the vast majority of high-profile, high-tech firms -- including AMD (NYSE:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:JAVA).

I believe there are several lessons to be drawn from the Progressive story that will help your future investing performance -- lessons that have helped our own performance in Motley Fool Hidden Gems. I'd like to share them with you today.

1. The power of patience
Meaningful gains do not happen overnight, of course. In late 1988, George Bush had just won the presidential election. George H.W. Bush, that is -- the current president's father. That's certainly not ancient history, but the point is that it took 20 years for Progressive to increase 23 times in value. Time and patience are two of the most important factors in investing, and they can help overcome mediocre performance, thanks to the power of compounding returns.

Consider that a person contributing $2,500 yearly to an IRA and earning an excellent average annual return of 15% will accumulate about $116,000 after 14 years. Yet someone who started investing just four years earlier would reach about the same total by earning an average return of only 10%. The important thing is to simply get in the game as soon as you can, and then once you're in, hurry up and be patient.

2. Small is big
Back before it started its fantastic run, Progressive was valued at just $300 million -- a small cap by any measure. Today's future 20-baggers will also be small companies. They will not carry Bank of America's (NYSE:BAC) $66 billion market cap, for example. While Bank of America may provide solid returns over the next few years, its massive size will limit it from achieving jaw-dropping gains. Progressive itself can't even be the next Progressive, because its market cap is nearing $10 billion. That’s not nearly as big as Bank of America, but it’s still too big to achieve outsized gains in the future.

Small companies offer individual investors like us many other advantages. Most institutional investors, with billions of dollars to allocate, must avoid small caps at least until they grow larger. That makes these stocks underfollowed and increases the chances that they're misvalued. To see why, consider an analogy we've used before.

The less activity in a marketplace or auction house, the higher the probability of pricing inefficiencies. When there is only one bidder for an autographed Michael Jordan game jersey, the chances for mispricing are infinitely higher than when thousands of investors bid every day -- every hour -- on the present price of, say, Apple stock, which trades some 50 million shares each day. That inefficiency provides opportunity for us smaller investors.

3. A penny saved
Progressive was never a penny stock trading below $1 per share. Future 10- and 100-baggers are most often trading between $5 and $50 per share (at least the ones we care about). They are rarely below $5, and they certainly aren't below $1.

Penny stocks represent ultra-tiny companies whose shares can easily be manipulated by unscrupulous people misrepresenting the businesses' true potential. In short, stay away from stocks that aren't traded on one of the major U.S. markets (the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, or American Stock Exchange), or that have no revenues, or that are obviously being hyped via email or discussion boards. You'll save yourself a ton of grief.

4. Dandy dividends
In our research, we're constantly studying past big winners to find the common ties that bind them. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) and consumer products giant Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) have different business models. Both, however, have been sound performers over the years, and both have paid a dividend ever since they were small companies -- in P&G's case, since 1890!

Just because a company is small and pays a dividend, though, that does not mean it is destined for greatness. But a dividend is a positive indicator, a telling sign of both financial strength and management's confidence that the company will continue to be solid through good times and bad. Progressive began paying its dividend back in 1986, when it was still capitalized at around $250 million.

5. Shareholder-friendly
In any company we research, we believe it's extremely important that management's interests are aligned with those of the shareholders. While investors want to see their shares outperform over the years, managers who are indifferent to the stock price may be more interested in hiring friends and grabbing perks than in creating value. Tyco, Adelphia, Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) ... the list of corporate disappointments is too long to list here.

This is why we love to see strong insider ownership at a company. Columbia Sportswear chief executive Timothy Boyle is a good example; he owns about 45% of the Hidden Gems recommendation. Peter Lewis, Progressive's chairman and founder, still owns some 7% of the company. His stake is worth in excess of $680 million today. If you want to talk about leadership with a vested interest in a business' long-term success, this is the perfect example.

6. Boring excitement
So a world-class company like Progressive must be headquartered in New York, right? Or Hartford, Conn., the "Insurance Capital of America"? Nope. It hails from Mayfield Village, Ohio, in the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga County, approximately 20 miles from downtown Cleveland. Low-key. Not flashy. A bit boring, even.

Reminds us of the early days of Wal-Mart, when the company didn't raise an eyebrow among big-time analysts. Wall Street treated Sam Walton's Arkansas boys like a bunch of hillbillies, it seemed. But these sleepy, small, "boring" companies -- with no hype built into their stock prices -- can offer outstanding bargains to us individual investors.

Putting it together
Beating the market with small-cap stocks, as we've been doing in Hidden Gems, is not as difficult as you might think. We simply start by looking at what has worked in the past, and then we go looking for it again.

Hidden Gems is now more than five years old, and our average recommendation is beating the S&P 500 by seven percentage points. If you'd like to check out all of our recommendations, plus the top five small caps for new money now, we're offering a 30-day free trial. Click here to give it a whirl.

This article was originally published on April 8, 2005. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is a Stock Advisor analyst and contributes the Foolish 8 screens to Hidden Gems. He owns shares of Procter & Gamble. Columbia Sportswear is a Hidden Gems recommendation. Bank of America is an Income Investor selection. Intel and Wal-Mart are Inside Value picks. Apple is a Stock Advisor selection. The Fool owns shares and covered calls of Intel. The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.


Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Bank of America Corporation Stock Quote
Bank of America Corporation
$33.49 (-1.38%) $0.47
Intel Corporation Stock Quote
Intel Corporation
$35.38 (-0.03%) $0.01
The Procter & Gamble Company Stock Quote
The Procter & Gamble Company
$145.27 (0.38%) $0.55
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Stock Quote
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
$100.07 (-2.19%) $-2.24
Valero Energy Corporation Stock Quote
Valero Energy Corporation
$106.39 (1.33%) $1.40

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
S&P 500 Returns

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 08/08/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.