With all of the recent volatility in the market, which stocks are outrageously cheap?
I found one recently, and I got to thinking about the others out there when I read money manager Bill Miller's comment that "the market abounds with good value." Of course, Mr. Miller also wrote last August that stocks were the cheapest they'd been since 1991 ... and after a brief rebound, they've gone right on dropping. Mr. Miller's fund has suffered thanks to core holdings in some recently deceptively cheap stocks such as eBay
Given wary financial markets, a recent rash of writedowns, and a slowing economy, it should be clear that not all stocks that look cheap are cheap (with no disrespect intended to the talented Mr. Miller). Both Warren Buffett and John Hussman have recently affirmed that lesson.
There are, however, some individual stocks today that, for one reason or another, not only present "good value," but are outrageously cheap.
Back up the truck, people
What makes for an outrageously cheap stock? Here's my short list:
- A balance sheet with lots of cash and little debt.
- An EV/EBITDA ratio less than 6.
- A business with the financial strength and strategy to survive and thrive in a down economy.
- No potential for massive writedowns.
- A stock that's been pummeled.
Of course, even amid today's unprecedented market environment, there are only a handful of large or mid-caps that meet those criteria, so if you really want to build an "outrageously cheap" portfolio, you may need to start thinking of yourself as a small-cap investor.
Welcome to the jungle
In truth, large caps such as Procter & Gamble
You generally won't find as much interest among small caps, which is one of the reasons why -- given the criteria above -- Perini
Company |
EV/EBITDA |
Cash on Hand |
Investors Scared Because ... |
---|---|---|---|
Perini |
5.1 |
$401 million |
Housing bust and credit crisis mean reduced construction demand. |
Columbia |
5.2 |
$143 million |
Declining consumer confidence will reduce spending on performance apparel. |
Gymboree |
3.8 |
$93 million |
Worsening retail environment has hit profit margins. |
Data from Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's.
Yes, that last subhead was a Guns N' Roses reference
The reason we love being small-cap investors at Motley Fool Hidden Gems is because it's the one area of the market where, thanks to inefficiencies and lack of Wall Street interest, stocks can become outrageously cheap. And there's good reason to think that things will get better for all three of these stocks. Of course, in a down market like this one, that lack of efficiency can make for some gut-wrenching downside volatility.
But we're using current market conditions to recommend the market's best small companies -- stocks that should crush the market averages over the next decade or more.
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This article was first published on March 14, 2008. It has been updated.
Tim Hanson does not own shares of any company mentioned. Columbia is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems recommendation. EBay is a Stock Advisor selection. Perini is a Hidden Gems Pay Dirt choice. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble. The Fool's disclosure policy is decidedly un-outrageous.