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Cozying Up to Home Depot

By Stephen D. Simpson, Simpson, – Updated Nov 16, 2016 at 1:14PM

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Forget the chatter about the housing market and interest rates. This company is a proven winner.

As I said in the most recent edition of the Diving Into the Dow series, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is one of my favorite ideas in the Dow Jones index, and one of my favorite overall mega-cap ideas. No, I'm not worried about the housing market, energy prices, or consumers' willingness to pry open their wallets. Instead, I see a strong, well-run company that generates copious cash flow and will continue to do so.

Third-quarter results did nothing to dent my opinion of this huge retailer. Sales were up 10.5%, with a 3.6% increase in same-store comps. Margins improved once again, and the company delivered 20% earnings growth. My biggest complaint with Home Depot's financial results is that they don't offer up a cash flow statement in the press release -- an omission that seems downright inexcusable for a company of its size.

There were plenty of little details in the quarter -- average ticket was up over 6%, square footage increased 7%, comps were pretty strong everywhere but in lumber, and so on. I'll leave that aside, though, for a quick discussion of why I'm positive about the company's future.

First, Home Depot is taking a page from Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) playbook and keenly focusing on back-of-the-store operations. In addition to investments in technology and improved supply-chain management, the company wants to improve its inventory management, all of which should boost profitability and may boost sales if customers react positively to better stocking levels and more responsive merchandising.

Second, Home Depot is increasingly targeting the industrial/commercial supply market. This market has proved to be fertile soil for growth for companies like Grainger (NYSE:GWW), Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST), and MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM). What's more, it is large, growing, and highly fragmented -- music to the ears of a well-organized retailing machine like Home Depot. While there is the risk that the company could flounder in this new market (it's not like the traditional big-box consumer business), I'm not overly worried.

Last, but not least, there are the always-talked-about international opportunities. Home Depot expects to open its 50th store in Mexico this quarter.

Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) and Home Depot are both successful in their own rights and potentially attractive investments. But I hope those who doubt Home Depot's future prospects remain loud and emphatic about it, as I'd be more than happy to pick up some shares at a slight discount.

For more homey takes:

Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Take afree trialsubscription today and find out which stocks lead analyst Philip Durell is recommending -- companies that retain their intrinsic value, despite their bargain-basement prices.

Fool contributor Stephen Simpson owns shares of MSC Industrial. The Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy .

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Stocks Mentioned

Walmart Stock Quote
Walmart
WMT
$130.06 (-2.50%) $-3.33
W.W. Grainger, Inc. Stock Quote
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
GWW
$494.85 (-1.86%) $-9.39
The Home Depot, Inc. Stock Quote
The Home Depot, Inc.
HD
$270.94 (0.67%) $1.80
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Stock Quote
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
MSM
$72.11 (-2.14%) $-1.58
Lowe's Companies, Inc. Stock Quote
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
LOW
$188.13 (0.01%) $0.01
Fastenal Company Stock Quote
Fastenal Company
FAST
$47.72 (0.27%) $0.13

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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