Catching Rising Stars

Generating big returns in the stock market is deceptively simple: Avoid stocks that are too expensive, and buy stocks that are bargain-priced.

So just how do you do it? At Inside Value, we look for trends in a company's return on invested capital (ROIC), which can be broken down two ways:

ROIC = NOPAT/Sales * Sales/Capital, or

ROIC = Margins * Capital Velocity

Using these two figures, the Inside Value team puts companies into one of the categories below:

To beat the market, we try to avoid companies moving toward "Value Destroyers," and we try to buy companies moving away from "Value Destroyers." Let's dig a little deeper and look at some real-life examples.

Rule No. 1
If a company earns a return on invested capital less than its cost of capital, it destroys value -- which definitely doesn't make share prices go up. Here are two prime examples:

When a company's ROIC declines, it's often because its margins are shrinking. Take Callaway, the golf club manufacturer, and EDS, the information technology consulting giant. Each has a sales/capital ratio greater than 1.75, which is pretty good. However, neither company currently has net operating profit margins (after tax) greater than 3%.

As you can see from the table, the market doesn't take very kindly to companies that become Value Destroyers. So, not surprisingly, the Inside Value team tries to stay away from them.

Rule No. 2
We just showed how the market snubs companies with declining ROIC. The companies destroy value, and we lose money. So stay away! But don't stray too far. Some of these companies may be Value Destroyers only temporarily, which gives astute value investors the chance to get in on the ground floor. Here are four examples of companies that shed the Destroyers moniker:

All four of these businesses experienced hard times along the way. In fact, Guess?, Apple, and SanDisk swung from being profitable to losing money. During that time, the companies' prices dropped as investors sold shares in the face of value destruction. Nike was well on its way to becoming a Value Destroyer, too, but it didn't quite make it. Still, the stock was hit hard.

Fortunately, all of these companies turned their businesses around. Management was able to work through the tough times, restore profitability, and increase returns on invested capital. As you can see from the fourth column, the market rewarded their performance.

You can do it
Investing in turnaround situations can be tough, especially on the psyche. But we want you to profit from turnarounds and not get stung by a Value Destroyer. And to do that, you need to:

1. Understand the companies
2. Be able to go against the crowd
3. Be patient

Without a good understanding of how a business works and how well it competes, it's difficult to know if the losses will continue. And even if you understand the company, humans don't like to be different -- consensus is comfortable. But as a value investor, you have to be willing to do your own thing and not follow the crowd. Finally, you have to be able to withstand the ups and downs of the market. Turnarounds don't always happen smoothly. So resist the temptation to give up on a situation too quickly just because the market price is fluctuating.

Or we can help
At Inside Value, advisor/analyst Philip Durell carefully examines each situation, is comfortable owning things others don't, and keeps subscribers aware of what's going on at each company profiled. In fact, that's exactly why he recently recommended Rent-A-Center (NASDAQ:RCII), a company that was once on its way to destroying value and now is turning things around.

As a bargain hunter, we know you want to protect and grow your capital. So Philip invites you to be a guest of the Fool's Inside Value newsletter free for 30 days. As his guest, you'll see how he beats the market by catching rising stars and creating -- not destroying -- value for subscribers.

David Meier owns shares of Nike but does not own shares in any of the other companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.