As human beings, we're wired to want to fit in. After all, consensus is comfortable; ostracism is not. In the paper "Why It Hurts to Be Left Out," UCLA professors Naomi Eisenberger and Matthew Lieberman show that the pain people feel when left out of a social situation occurs in the same part of the brain as physical pain.
I've felt that pain. Believe me. I didn't buy shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) at $85 or even $100 near its Dutch auction IPO a few years back. You didn't either, did you? We share that pain. I thought about buying some shares, but I didn't. And then they hit $200 in early February 2005. By last fall, they hit $300 ... and $400 right before Thanksgiving. At each and every point of Google's amazing run, I regretted not being part of that run-up. I was not in with the in crowd, and it hurt.
But I'm a soldier; I've got to buck up. In investing, you have to play through the pain. You can't succumb to it or you'll never overcome it.
Nobody ever lost money by not investing in a stock. And for every high-growth success story -- Google -- there are hundreds of other popular (and expensive) stocks that don't earn investors the same great returns.
Embrace the pain
Rather than following the pack, there is a reward in owning stocks no one wants. Going against the crowd can be tough on the psyche, but that's how value investors succeed.
Value investors seek out stocks that are cheap relative to their intrinsic value. We don't buy what everyone is buying -- those stocks come with high price tags and low expected returns. We buy what everyone is selling. That's where the big gains (and sometimes pains) live. In the buy low, sell high game, "no pain, no gain" (right, sports fans?).
The unpopular list
One place to look for value-priced bargains is the new 52-week-low list. Consistent with my philosophy to buy what others are selling, people are selling these stocks, and the prices are falling.
In the April 25, 2006, 52-week-low list, I stumbled on some interesting ideas. First, pharmaceutical company Sepracor (NASDAQ:SEPR), which makes medicines to treat respiratory and central nervous system issues, has had its share of ups and downs, sending shareholders on a roller-coaster ride. And that ride is currently plunging. While the company performed relatively well in its first quarter, it missed expectations, sending shares to a new 52-week low. Could this present an opportunity to profit from the panic, especially given the prospects for Lunesta (an insomnia drug) and the other drugs in its pipeline?
No industry captures the essence of Eisenberger and Lieberman's article more than radio. Satellite radio companies XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) are quite popular today. In fact, Sirius is consistently one of the most actively traded stocks on the Nasdaq. Its fast-growing subscriber base attracts lots of investors, reinforcing the notion that terrestrial radio is dead. No wonder radio station operators Cumulus Media (NASDAQ:CMLS), Cox Radio, Radio One, and Citadel Communications all hit 52-week lows. Can you take the pain and invest in companies no one wants to own? That may be too much for most investors to handle, but famed value investor Wally Weitz can -- he thinks Cumulus Media is a bargain that keeps getting more and more attractive.
Be contrary
Here at the Fool, I've seen the go-where-others-won't strategy played out right before my eyes. Philip Durell, the man behind the Inside Value newsletter service, recommended Rent-A-Center (NASDAQ:RCII) at a time when no one else liked the stock. After years of successful growth, Rent-A-Center's same-store sales slowed. The company opened new stores near older outlets in order to improve service and revenue, but that move led to some cannibalization. Rent-A-Center hit a 52-week low of $14.90 on Oct. 18, 2005. Philip outlined a case for a market-leading business with superb cash production and a motivated CEO who's largely invested in his company. Rent-A-Center is up approximately 50% from the $18 mark when Philip recommended, and that's an encouraging start.
Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) also recently hit a new 52-week low -- this time, after Philip recommended the company for its expected future growth and strong balance sheet. Renowned value investor Mason Hawkins of Southeastern Asset Management has scooped up a lot of Dell shares lately. Although Philip and Mason find their current investments a bit underwater, I'm sure they are salivating at the opportunity to get this great company at even lower prices.
The Foolish bottom line
It's difficult -- and often painful -- to go against the crowd. But a value investor must embrace the pain in order to make the most of his investment decisions. Be brave. Be different. You and your portfolio might be nicely surprised with the results.
If you'd like to join Philip Durell and the Fool's Inside Value team, a free 30-day guest pass is yours for the taking. It may be a crowd, but it's full of contrarians. Click here to learn more.
Fool David Meier does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned. XM Satellite Radio is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Dell is a Stock Advisor recommendation. The Motley Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy.
