I wish I were in the market for some Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock at the moment. Why is that? Because poor Mr. Softy missed Wall Street's holy expectations, and now the stock is down by more than 11%. Oh, well, what can you do? As far as I'm concerned, Microsoft's numbers weren't all that bad.
Take a look for yourself. Revenues for the Dow component increased 13% to $10.9 billion during the third quarter. Operating income jumped 17% to $3.89 billion. Net income appreciated 16% to just less than $3 billion, or $0.29 per diluted share.
On the downside, cash from operations declined by about 9% to $4.6 billion, and free cash flow decreased by 11.2% to $4.3 billion, under pressure from Microsoft's increased capital-expenditure activities this quarter.
The company believes that its investments will bear fruit later on, and it believes strongly in its long-term future, as evidenced by the nearly $5 billion of stock that it took from the float this past quarter. Also notable is that the dividend payment was far below the free-cash level, coming in at $925 million.
Microsoft did a commendable job, in my opinion. It may not be growing as rapidly as competitor Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is, but the sight of double-digit gains in revenues, operating income, and net profit for a company as mature as this one is pretty cool. Again, though, Wall Street is wont to crack the whip when its expectations aren't met.
There are a few important catalysts that investors must consider here. First, the new Windows operating system, dubbed Vista, will be released in 2007. Second to come will be the new version of the ultra-popular Microsoft Office software suite; everyone's pretty familiar with Word, Excel, and the like, so the potential here is pretty obvious. Third, and perhaps riskiest of all, is the Xbox 360 video-game platform. I say this is risky because come autumn, Microsoft will have to compete with Sony's (NYSE:SNE) next PlayStation console. That war is bound to put pressure on the Microsoft's Home and Entertainment segment, which is running a wider loss these days -- the segment had an operating loss of $388 million this quarter versus an operating loss of $175 million in the comparable time frame. The company is losing money on the 360 units as it builds up a solid user base that will hopefully pay off as we get deeper into the new console cycle. For now, though, shareholders can gratify themselves with the 80% increase in revenues seen in this segment, thanks in large part to the adoption of the 360.
I calculate Microsoft's price-to-FCF ratio to be about 20. That might seem a bit on the high side to some, but I don't see it as wholly exorbitant for a blue chip like Microsoft. I believe that free cash flow will increase as the catalysts I described begin to kick in. Waiting for a further pullback in this case might be tricky, considering the tight range the stock has been trading in; dollar-cost averaging could be a better strategy here.
Microsoft is a valuable brand that holds a virtual monopoly on the operating-system market; in addition, the company possesses the wherewithal to increase its dividend for many years to come -- shareholders might be looking at a great effective-yield play. Wall Street may be down on Mr. Softy right now, but I like its business investments and its income potential. Years from now, holders of the stock should be rewarded handsomely.
More Takes on Microsoft:
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Fool contributor Steven Mallas owns none of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
