I am always looking for a good deal, whether that means buying an extra box of Frosted Flakes when they're on sale or pouncing on undervalued stocks. The idea that anybody would sell a stock for less than its worth may seem silly, but legendary value investor Ben Graham tells us, by way of allegory, how we can look out for these situations.
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham introduces readers to a wacky guy named Mr. Market. Mr. Market’s game is to pay you house calls on a daily basis to offer to sell you interests in businesses he owns or to buy from you interests in businesses you own. Sometimes Mr. Market will show up at your door very excited and offer you premium prices for your holdings, while at other times he'll be inconsolably depressed about the future and will offer to sell you what he has for as low as pennies on the dollar.
So to find some of the stocks that Mr. Market is depressed about, I’ve turned once again to The Motley Fool’s CAPS investor community. Each of the companies below had been given a five-star rating (the highest) by our community of investors just 30 days ago:
|
Stock |
30-Day Return |
1-Year Return |
Current CAPS Rating (Out of 5) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Quicksilver Resources |
(33.1%) |
14.3% |
***** |
|
Barrick Gold |
(31.7%) |
(1.2)% |
**** |
|
Silver Wheaton |
(31.6%) |
(23.5%) |
**** |
|
Nabors Industries |
(28.1%) |
8.1% |
**** |
|
Vaalco Energy |
(27.1%) |
35.6% |
**** |
|
Atwood Oceanics |
(26.8%) |
13.7% |
***** |
|
Gerdau |
(21.5%) |
48.5% |
***** |
Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of Aug. 13.
As the table shows, these stocks are all still very well-regarded by the CAPS community despite their underperformance over the past month. While these are not formal recommendations, they could be a great place to kick off some further research. I'll even get you started with some thoughts on Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick Atwood Oceanics.
Why so blue?
I can't imagine that it was Atwood's earnings for the quarter ended in June that led investors to sell off the stock. Atwood reported earnings with little fanfare back on Aug. 7, but the numbers were pretty stunning. Revenue was up 44% from the prior year and diluted earnings per share were up a screaming 88%. That's great growth for any company, but for a stock that's trading at less than 13 times trailing earnings, it's particularly impressive.
However, as an offshore oil driller, Atwood has obviously been feeling the pain of the rest of the energy industry as oil has taken an extended tumble. Investors may fear that if oil continues to slide, the demand for oil drilling services will decline, and as that happens, the oil drillers’ dayrates will fall.
What the bulls say
So the outlook on Atwood depends to some extent on whether you see oil continuing to fall. Atwood has 99% of its available rig days already committed for its fiscal 2008 (which ends next quarter), along with 50% of fiscal 2009. But the market is always forward-looking, and it would certainly punish the stock if day rates for future commitments saw heavy declines.
Many CAPS members, though, don't see the drop in oil prices continuing, and likewise see good times ahead for Atwood. More than 1,400 CAPS members think Atwood's stock will outperform the S&P 500, versus a measly 12 who think it will under perform. One of these Atwood bulls, TexasLonghorns, recently shared his thoughts on the prospects for Atwood and oil more broadly:
The recent sell off in drillers and the declines of alot of big energy hunters had nothing more to do with profit taking than it did with fundamentals. Oil will be back in the $150 range before the end of 2008. This is great price on this outstanding driller!
So do you think the recent drop has created a good buying opportunity? Or is there more downside ahead? Let the community know what you think -- head over to CAPS and share your thoughts with the other 115,000-plus players currently part of the community. Even if you'd prefer to pass on Atwood, you can check out a couple of the other stocks listed above -- or any of the 5,500 stocks that are rated on CAPS.
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