Great Call on Ford! What's Next?

I don't need a whole lot to convince me that equity shares of Ford (NYSE:F) are a bad bet. I don't need to point to plummeting auto sales, tough competition, or even the pressure from the UAW. It's really pretty simple for me -- with over $150 billion in debt outstanding versus just over $4 billion in market cap, debt holders pretty much own the company at this point. And they're the only ones that are guaranteed anything when push comes to shove.

I'm not the only one who feels this way. On the Motley Fool's CAPS service, over 2,400 of the 6,600 members that have weighed in on the stock think it will underperform the broader market. Of course that's not to say that there's no room for traders to make money in the short term. Case in point is the current score leader on Ford's stock, thebeermonster. This CAPS player gave the stock a thumbs-up back in late November and has seen it rise 23% since then, even as the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 16%.

thebeermonster is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed a stock-picking accuracy of 55%, racking up over 200 points. Ford isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:

Data from CAPS.

So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:

Data from CAPS.

While not all of these picks may pan out (no pun intended on those gold shares), they could be a good place to start some further research. I decided to take a closer look at Procter & Gamble.

A bounty of brands
Right now we are absolutely awash in uncertainty. Will dividends continue disappearing? Will Citigroup ever pull itself out of the muck? Will Danny Gokey become the next American Idol? It's enough to drive you crazy.

It makes sense, then, that we might want to focus on stocks that eliminate as much of that uncertainty as possible, while still sporting a reasonable price tag. Enter Procter & Gamble. Consumers may be unsure about their financial situation, but they're still very likely to continue brushing their teeth with Oral-B toothbrushes and Crest toothpaste, cleaning up messes with Bounty paper towels, smelling manly with Old Spice, and beating stomach aches with Pepto-Bismol -- all of which put money in P&G's pockets.

The trade-off is that you don't get the business stability of P&G at the fire-sale prices of some other stocks. However, the stock is currently trading at just over 10 times its trailing earnings per share. Not only is this well below P&G's historical trading multiples, but it implies nearly a 10% earnings yield at a time when 30-year treasuries are yielding 3.5% and shorter-term treasuries are literally paying nothing. Heck, P&G's dividend payout of 3.3% stacks up well against those 30-year notes.

P&G is also a clear favorite among CAPS members. Over 97% of the 5,800 members that have chimed in on the stock have given it a thumbs-up. CAPS member TSIF added some bullish thoughts to the mix back in late February:

Another strong player that usually tracks with the S&P with "nothing special' in good times, but holds up very well in a recession. Very likely candidate to raise dividends and signal strength. VERY high debt, but good margins, steady growth and incredible cash flow producing many necessary products. Great household name and well trusted. Outperform until the Markets stabilize and an excellent long to hold, but maybe not a perfect Caps S&P beater in a bull market.

But here's the important question: What's your take on Procter & Gamble? Will its great product portfolio help protect it during the recession? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. CAPS is absolutely free and already has more than 130,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.

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