Well, we're probably on our way out of the recession, even though it doesn't feel like it yet. Just remember: the end of a recession, by definition, is always at the bottom, when things feel the worst.
That will have made 11 recessions over the past 60 years that the United States has seen and survived. From the shortest one -- six months in 1980 -- to the three monsters of 1973-1975, 1981-1982, and 2007-2009, we've muddled through and come out the other side. In between each, we've experienced, on average, almost five years of expansion.
So, even though the market has climbed quite a bit already, I'm still excited about the opportunities as the economy picks up.
Pardon me while I wipe my chin
First, we still have a whole bunch of people running around in panic mode crying, "The sky is falling!" They don't want to hold stocks, doomed or not, during economic hard times, so they're willing to sell them -- cheap.
Second, the news media fans the flames of panic with constant stories about continued weak consumer spending and how everything is hurting, from Amazon.com to ZymoGenetics.
Third, we've got a handful of really hated companies. Specifically, I'm talking about the banks, thrifts, and builders that caused and are feeling the fallout from the mess we're in.
What does that add up to? Bargains.
Like a kid in a candy store ... and the candy's on sale
One option is to search among the banks. In that space, Bank of America
There's also American International Group
And if you don't want to invest in a bank, but still want exposure to the financial sector, consider American Express
Then there are (still) the restaurateurs, trying to survive during this recession. Those which can buck that trend are likely to be best of breed. Some names include Buffalo Wild Wings
Even big name companies have been dragged down. ConocoPhilips
Finally, all the talk about lower consumer spending has driven prices of many retailers down to enticing levels. For instance, there's Home Depot
"When Buffett speaks, people listen."
Investing in the above industries might seem counterintuitive now, but Warren Buffett says au contraire.
To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Bill Nygren, another great value investor, agrees. Looking at the current economic situation, he wrote, "What usually happens is that suffering industries begin to recover, the next crisis comes from somewhere least expected, and the cycle of creating new investment opportunities starts anew. We have no reason to believe it will be different this time."
These gentlemen know that investing today in areas that aren't well-liked will position your portfolio for the eventual end of this bear market. There will be another bull market. Heck, we might have been seeing the first few months of it. What we have now -- still -- is the chance to grab some good companies while they're cheap.
So what are you going to do? Stop investing in stocks altogether, worried that things will be different this time? Or listen to master investors (not me -- Buffett and Nygren!) and look at some opportunities?
I know what I'm doing.
Finding value
Above, I've given some names of companies that have caught my eye recently. But to get a look at companies that have been the subject of much deeper research, take a look at the latest recommendation and seven best buy now companies -- eight total -- given just last week at our Inside Value service. Philip Durell and his team look in downtrodden areas of the market, just as Buffett and Nygren advise.
Right now, we're offering a free 30-day trial, so here's your chance to look deeper into this market-beating newsletter.
This article was first published on Feb. 12, 2008. It has been updated.
Jim Mueller owns shares of Buffalo Wild Wings, but not any other company mentioned at the time of publication. Amazon is a recommendation of Stock Advisor, while American Express and Home Depot appear among the pages of Inside Value. Buffalo Wild Wings is a choice at Motley Fool Hidden Gems and the Fool owns shares. The Fool's disclosure policy believes, deep down, that the market will turn around.