The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.
One of our highest-rated CAPS members is ShortyJoy, who sports a 99.96 member rating. A member since January 2007, ShortyJoy has 130 active picks on CAPS out of more than 860 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, ShortyJoy has attracted 46 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.
Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.
Stock |
Call |
Price^ |
Current Score |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
CoBiz Financial |
* |
Underperform |
$4.02 |
(8.83) |
Finish Line |
* |
Underperform |
$8.77 |
(34.79) |
Hot Topic |
** |
Underperform |
$5.49 |
2.98 |
Lannett |
* |
Underperform |
$5.80 |
(2.21) |
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF |
*** |
Outperform |
$54.09 |
(11.59) |
New Gold |
*** |
Outperform |
$4.05 |
5.78 |
NovaGold Resources |
*** |
Outperform |
$6.60 |
(2.97) |
Ocwen Financial |
* |
Underperform |
$9.24 |
(3.01) |
Taseko Mines |
**** |
Outperform |
$4.16 |
$3.88 |
UltraShort Silver ProShares |
* |
Underperform |
$3.72 |
(7.06) |
Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.
Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.
Degree of risk
How's this for undervalued? Midtier copper player Taseko Mines has tripled in value over the past six months and quadrupled over the past year, but Fool mining guru Christopher Barker believes it remains the best bargain in the industry.
All along he has been saying that the market has been valuing the miner as if its Prosperity gold and copper claim didn't exist. And while Taseko's valuation has improved since Christopher penned those words in early December, it remains just a fraction of the value of the gold that can be recovered from Prosperity, let alone the copper there and at Taseko's Gibraltar mine. The agreement that Taseko inked last month with Japanese trading house Sojitz gives it the capital infusion necessary to construct the new mine, meaning there's still a window of opportunity to invest before the market prices the stock appropriately.
CAPS member fojaha agrees the deal sets a base value on the Prosperity mine but the rest of its assets remain mispriced:
Had this company for several months, neg. to put it in caps. It's let me bank some money,hopefully more will be coming my way.If recent 25% partner at 170m sets a value on the gibraltar gold mine. That would put the mine value some distance above [Taseko's] market [capitalization]. That would mean everything else, copper etc. is for free. China may have loaded up on copper, but they took supply off the market. Others are wanting copper, wheres the supply?
Head over to the Taseko Mines CAPS page and drop a nugget or two of your own wisdom on why this top miner still has a rich patina.
Black and blue
Retailers got a nice Christmas present this holiday season, showing surprising strength as consumers flocked to the malls again. But it was not all good cheer. Hot Topic and Abercrombie & Fitch
Whereas Abercrombie has been unable to find any traction with shoppers recently, causing same-store sales (aka comps) to drop 19%, the retailer catering to the goth crowd was drained of blood by consumers apparently weary of the vampire mania caused by the pop phenomenon Twilight. Hot Topic reported an 11% decline in comps for the quarter and cut its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter.
While the CAPS community is nearly evenly split on the prospects of Hot Topic's ability to outperform the market, All-Star member Staka was counting on it beating expectations when giving the teen retailer an outperform rating:
Beaten down due to a much-worse-than-expected decline in November same-store sales on Dec. 2, prompting a slew of negative commentary, including an initiation of coverage by [JP Morgan-Chase] on Dec. 4 at "Neutral," and a downgrade by Argus Research on Dec. 2 to "Hold" from "Buy."
Company has a solid balance sheet. Probability of next suprise beeing to the upside seems higher than another sell-off.
A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?