A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is bg11235, who sports a top 95.87 member rating. Below are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^Price when call was made.
Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Looking for a plumber to fix your leaky faucet? Many people probably default to Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) or Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) for a quick local search, but 20 million consumers every month also hit up Local.com to find business advertisers in their area.

While the local search specialist competes against big-name rivals, it does so by advertising on their search engines. Local.com generated 57% of its website traffic through search engine marketing campaigns and almost 70% of its advertising budget -- $17.9 million -- was paid to Google.

It's a successful maneuver, apparently, because the company recently issued guidance for the second quarter and all of 2010 that was well above analyst expectations. CAPS' bg11235 thinks the company will become profitable in short order and probably be bought out within a few years, while CAPS member hydrarkt looks to its patents for indications that it will continue to expand: "Solid revenue growth. Patented technologies for search that continue to gain customers."

Store this away for later
Everyone thought the possible default by Greece was a really bad sign for the global economy, yet it still took wrangling and arm-twisting to get a deal together to forestall the country's collapse. National Bank of Greece was sent into a tailspin, though many investors now think the worst is behind the bank. CAPS member benfikaman says the stock is already priced for disaster:

The panic selling seems to have subsided, the bank is profitable and continuing business as usual, all other factors are already worked into the price. Time for a move back up.

Could be, but if Spain turns out to be a worse situation than Greece -- and it looks like that may be the case, if for no other reason than its economy is so much bigger than Greece's -- it could set the dominoes tumbling. Although Spain says it has not asked for a bailout and doesn't want one, rumors are circulating that the European Central Bank is preparing a worst-case scenario plan to stabilize the country.

European banks are owed $1.6 trillion in debt from Spain, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. While some banks are more exposed than others, Spain's Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) still holds excellent Tier 1 ratios that would allow it to remain profitable even if Spain's economy contracted for a period of time. National Bank of Greece also has sound Tier 1 ratios, but that country's insolvency could quickly change that dynamic.

A tourism wasteland
Tendrils of the BP (NYSE: BP) oil spill keep reaching out into the economy beyond the impact on the driller or other companies in the industry. Of course, there are a lot of small-business operators in the Gulf area that will be affected for years by the disaster. Oyster farmers, shrimp fisherman, the restaurants they serve, etc., will all feel the bite of the oil slick. (Floridian Fool Rick Munarriz is quite irate.)

But we're also going to see its impact on other businesses. For example, the oil slick that's going to be rolling up on the state's beaches is likely to cause major fallout for St. Joe, one of the largest real estate developers in Florida, which has huge holdings in the panhandle.

It was just that sort of land holding that had CAPS member SorgelEquity looking for St. Joe to outperform before the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion:

It has 577,000 acres of land near the beach in Florida that is undeveleoped. Currently [in mid-March] it is trading at 2.6 Billion Market Cap, which puts the value per acre around $4,500. The Irvine Company was a real estate firm in the same place as Saint Joe was in the 1970's. They had around 120,000 acres of land in an undeveloped place called Orange County. In 30 years the entire county was built out and the company is now worth an estimated 7-10 billion. St. Joe has more than 4x the amount of land.

While there has been no impact yet, St. Joe is building sand berms along its properties to help protect against incoming oil.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?