Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

See You on the Other Side of the Cliff

By Brian Orelli, PhD – Updated Apr 6, 2017 at 10:18PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Lilly beats, but there's still a lot of unknowns.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) beat analysts' earnings expectations every quarter last year and started this year out with another overshoot, bringing in an adjusted $1.24 per share compared with the $1.17 per share analysts were expecting.

The solid quarter came from a combination of increased foreign revenue and continued cost cutting. The adjusted earnings ignores the cost of its licensing deal with Boehringer Ingelheim for a piece of Boehringer's diabetes drugs and the $76 million in restructuring costs.

Can the company continue the trend through the patent cliff? Investors could only hope so.

After yesterday's beat, Lilly trades at a trailing P/E of 7.4. Astonishingly cheap, but that's because Lilly's earnings are expected to drop in 2012 after top-selling Zyprexa loses patent protection. While Zyprexa isn't as big of a drug as Lipitor, its loss is going to hurt Lilly more than Lipitor will hurt Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) because Zyprexa makes up such a large fraction -- 22%! -- of Lilly's revenue. Plus Lilly will lose Cymbalta and Humalog – No. 2 and 4 on Lilly's top sellers list -- in 2013.

Investors are valuing Lilly at 9.6 times 2012 projected earnings. Whether that's cheap depends on whether Lilly can exceed analysts' expectations next year and what the future beyond 2012 looks like. Lilly's pipeline -- both internally and externally derived drugs -- is critical.

So far the purchases haven't worked out so well. Amyvid, which it got from Avid Radiopharmaceuticals, failed to gain Food and Drug Administration approval last month and liprotamase from Alnara Pharmaceuticals got turned down last Friday.

One bright spot is that Lilly is close to gaining full approval of Amylin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMLN) and Alkermes's (Nasdaq: ALKS) Bydureon in Europe. Of course, an approval in the U.S. -- more specifically the successful completion of a safety trial the FDA wants -- is still necessary before we pop open the bubbly.

Whether Lilly is a value or a value trap at this point depends on a lot of unknown factors. There's a nice 5.4% dividend yield if you're willing to invest blindly, but cautious investors would be better off watching the landing as it falls off the patent cliff before investing.

Can't wait? Here are 13 high-yielding stocks you can buy today.

Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Eli Lilly and Company Stock Quote
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY
$311.46 (0.19%) $0.59
Pfizer Inc. Stock Quote
Pfizer Inc.
PFE
$44.08 (-1.10%) $0.49
Alkermes plc Stock Quote
Alkermes plc
ALKS
$22.32 (-0.67%) $0.15

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
339%
 
S&P 500 Returns
109%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/24/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.