With the economy slowing, the stock market falling, and home prices tanking, everyone's attention is clearly focused on the here and now. But if you're counting on Social Security and Medicare to help you retire, you've got bigger problems looming -- problems that aren't likely to get solved anytime soon.
Yesterday, the government agencies that run the two most important programs for retirees released their annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports. The main purpose of the reports is to provide an update on the financial health of the respective programs. By projecting current trends into the future, the agencies determine how long their respective trust funds will stay solvent.
One year closer
Unfortunately, the prognosis for current workers remains poor. Current estimates have Social Security running out of money in 2041 and Medicare using up its reserves in 2019 -- the same dates as last year.
The reports also give guidance as to what could be done to resolve the anticipated shortfalls. For Social Security, the trustees estimate that an increase in the payroll taxes that employers and employees pay from 12.4% to 14.1% would provide enough funds to keep the program running for another 75 years. On the Medicare side, it'd take a bigger increase, going from the current 2.9% tax rate to 6.44%.
Alternatively, benefits could be cut to keep the programs running. For Social Security, an immediate 11.5% reduction in benefits would be necessary; if the government waits to reduce benefits until the 2041 insolvency date, it would have to reduce benefits by 22%. Medicare benefits would need a more drastic cut, reducing benefits by more than half to keep the trust solvent.
Health care in crisis
In particular, the problems with Medicare reflect deeper issues in health care generally. While you might expect that any company with a connection to health care would be doing well, that isn't universally true. For instance, health-care insurance companies like WellPoint
Of course, short-term stock movements don't necessarily spell the end of the boom in health care. Although surgical robot-maker Intuitive Surgical's
Don't expect quick action
Despite the implications that the future shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare have on your financial health when you retire, you're unlikely to see much progress this year toward resolving them. The current economic problems have everyone focused on the immediate future, especially Congressional lawmakers facing re-election this year.
Moreover, with stocks behaving badly, past proposals don't look nearly as attractive. For instance, diverting payroll taxes into private accounts looked like a great idea when stocks had risen strongly for four consecutive years. Now that markets are falling and stories are circulating about rank-and-file workers at Bear Stearns
More than ever, you have to prepare for the possibility that government programs won't do as much for you as they've done for past and current retirees. By taking charge of your own retirement, you can anticipate medical costs and other living expenses, and save accordingly. Given the precarious positions that Social Security and Medicare are in, you can't afford to depend on them for a prosperous retirement.
To learn more about protecting yourself in retirement, read about
For more on the role Social Security and Medicare will play in your retirement plan, take a look at our Rule Your Retirement service. Foolish analyst Robert Brokamp and his team of experts work through the numbers to figure out your best retirement strategy. Take a look at what Rule Your Retirement has to offer with a free 30-day trial.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger isn't counting on Social Security or Medicare to be around when he retires, but he's still confident. He doesn't own shares of the companies discussed in this article. Intuitive Surgical is a Rule Breakers recommendation. Pfizer is a recommendation of Inside Value and Income Investor. UnitedHealth Group is an Inside Value and Stock Advisor pick. The Fool's disclosure policy solves problems.
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