With the race for the White House heating up, so is the campaign rhetoric. The so-called "third rail of American politics" -- Social Security -- has emerged as a hot-button issue.
President Joe Biden went on the attack against House Republicans, arguing that they "will cut Social Security and give more tax cuts to the wealthy." Former president and presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump made an even more ominous claim. Trump recently warned Social Security could "collapse" because of Biden's policies. Is he right?
Image source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.
Trump's dire prediction
Trump's comments were made earlier this month at a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The presumptive GOP presidential nominee scathingly criticized President Biden's immigration policies, stating, "One of the most important issues in this race is how Biden's border invasion is going to obliterate Medicare and Social Security for American seniors."
How will Biden's immigration policies damage Social Security? Trump didn't provide any details to back up his allegations. However, one of his statements at the campaign rally perhaps gives insight into his thinking. Trump said, "If the millions of Biden migrants are allowed to stay as Joe Biden intends, they will cost taxpayers trillions of dollars, and Medicare and Social Security will buckle and collapse!"
The former president argued, "What he's [Biden] doing by allowing 15 million, 20 million people per year, [is] destroying your Social Security, he's destroying your Medicare, and many things else." Trump added, "He's destroying your way of life."
Examining Trump's claims
The number of Border Patrol encounters with individuals attempting to enter the U.S. illegally at the southern border has risen sharply during Biden's presidency. However, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a total of 3.3 million immigrants in 2023 (including documented immigrants), with around 860,000 people crossing borders illegally. These numbers are much lower than the 15 million to 20 million per year cited by Trump.
Regardless of the specific numbers, will illegal immigration cause Social Security to "buckle and collapse," as Trump alleged? Not according to Social Security's trustees. In their 2023 annual report, the program's trustees highlighted a positive impact on Social Security from immigration "because immigration occurs at relatively young ages, thereby increasing the numbers of covered workers earlier than the numbers of beneficiaries."
The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) agrees. In 2019, the organization published a paper on the effect of immigration on Social Security. BPC concluded, "Immigrants to the United States tend to be of working age on arrival, which means they can begin contributing to the Social Security system as soon as they begin working. Immigrants also tend to consume fewer benefits than the native-born population, including fewer Social Security benefits." Because of these two factors, BPC argued that immigration helps bolster Social Security by providing additional younger workers who pay the FICA taxes, which partially fund the federal program.
The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), which supports low immigration levels, stated last year, "Illegal immigration unambiguously benefits the Social Security and Medicare trust funds." However, CIS estimates that granting amnesty for 10 million illegal immigrants would cost Social Security and Medicare around $1.3 trillion over the long term. Biden has proposed a pathway to citizenship for the 10 million to 12 million undocumented immigrants who live in the U.S.
No Social Security collapse, but cuts could be on the way
Will Social Security "buckle and collapse" because of Biden's immigration policies? No. Illegal immigration actually helps fund Social Security. If the president managed to grant amnesty to all undocumented immigrants in the country it could have a negative financial impact over the long run. However, that would only be true if the amount of lifetime benefits received by the individuals affected were greater than their contributions during their working years.
There is a dark cloud looming over Social Security, though. It won't lead to the program's collapse but could result in significant benefit cuts. Social Security's trust funds will run out of money by 2033, according to the CBO's projections. Neither Trump nor Biden pushed aggressively for Social Security reforms to avoid the benefit cuts during their respective first terms.
