It's fair to say that numerous retirees today would not be able to cover their expenses without Social Security. Those benefits are crucial to helping millions of seniors put a roof over their heads and food on the table, especially given that so many people enter retirement without a notable amount of savings.
Seniors who are heavily dependent on Social Security for income tend to worry about the program's annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs). Automatic COLAs became the law decades ago to give seniors on Social Security a way to maintain their buying power in the face of inflation.
Image source: Getty Images.
This past January, Social Security got its smallest COLA in years -- a 2.5% raise following a period of cooling inflation. And now that we're close to the halfway point of the year, a lot of retirees are eager to know what 2026's Social Security COLA will look like.
Unfortunately, they'll have to sit tight a bit longer. The Social Security Administration won't be able to announce that information until October.
But based on the inflation data we have so far, there are estimates as to what next year's Social Security COLA will be. And you may find the news surprising.
How Social Security COLAs are calculated
Social Security COLAs are calculated based on third quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). When there's a rise in the CPI-W, benefits increase. When there's a decrease or no change, Social Security benefits don't get a COLA.
Inflation hasn't exactly been soaring this year so far, but things could change as the year progresses. We don't know the extent to which tariffs will affect the economy and drive prices up. So there could be an increase in inflation, which could lead to a larger Social Security COLA in the new year.
The 2026 COLA estimate so far
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, recently released a 2026 COLA projection based on the most recent CPI-W data. And now, it's expecting a 2.5% Social Security raise in the coming year.
That 2.5% projection is higher than the group's recent estimates. And it's also the same exact raise Social Security benefits got at the start of the current year.
Unfortunately, a 2.5% raise may not do much good for seniors on Social Security who are struggling to pay their bills already. On the other hand, a 2.5% COLA is indicative of a reasonable level of inflation. So what retirees lose out on in one regard, they gain in another.
It may be that Social Security benefits won't rise so much in the new year. But if living costs don't rise at a very rapid pace, retirees could basically break even.
That's why it typically doesn't pay for seniors to get so worked up over Social Security COLAs. A larger COLA typically means more problematic inflation, while a smaller one means less problematic inflation. Things should, in theory, even out.
Still, if you're struggling to cover your living costs on Social Security, you should brace for a fairly modest COLA in 2026. And you may want to rethink some of your current expenses in light of that.
That could mean downsizing to a smaller home or relocating to an area where your benefits might give you more buying power. It could also pay to look into part-time work if you're really struggling with your current monthly Social Security check.
