We're less than two months away from the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement, and if you're reading this, I'm guessing you're pretty eager to know what kind of benefit you can expect next year. That's understandable, especially if you rely upon your checks to cover most of your expenses.
I wish I could tell you exactly how much you'll get, but we're still missing a few key pieces needed for the final calculation. There are a few things we do know about the 2026 Social Security COLA, though.
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1. It will be announced on Oct. 15, 2025
The Social Security Administration (SSA) will officially announce the 2026 COLA on the morning of Oct. 15, 2025. That date isn't arbitrary. It's when the final piece of information required for the COLA calculation comes in.
The SSA calculates COLAs by comparing average third-quarter inflation data from the current year and the past year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It sounds complicated, but anyone with a calculator can do the math themselves.
You take the July, August, and September figures from the current year, total them up, and divide by three. Then, you do the same thing with the data from July, August, and September from the past year. Next, you subtract the previous year's average from the current year's average and divide the difference by the previous year's average. The result is the new COLA. For example, the 2024 third-quarter average was 2.5% higher than the 2023 third-quarter average, which gave seniors a 2.5% COLA that year.
We have the July 2025 number already, but we're still waiting on the figures for August and September. The September number will officially be released on Oct. 15, so that's when we get the COLA announcement too.
2. It'll likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.7%
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, makes monthly COLA predictions that are generally pretty accurate. In the last two years, their August estimates were pretty much on the nose. This year, its latest prediction is for a 2.7% COLA for 2026. However, there's a chance this could be a bit of an underestimation.
TSCL began the year estimating a 2.1% COLA for 2026. But it's steadily risen as a result of concerns over increasing inflation due to President Trump's tariffs. If this trend continues, the actual COLA could be a bit higher than current estimates, but it's unlikely to be drastically different.
A 2.7% COLA would add about $54 to the $2,007 average monthly retirement benefit as of July 2025. The $954 average spousal benefit would increase by about $26. But keep in mind that you may get more or less than this depending on how your benefit stacks up to these averages now.
3. It'll likely be an average to slightly above-average COLA
The average COLA over the last 25 years is about 2.5%, so if TSCL's 2026 COLA prediction is accurate, it should be an average to slightly above-average increase compared to past years. This could be disappointing for those who were hoping for a large benefit bump.
It's possible that the COLA may not go as far as you'd hoped next year. In that case, you may need to make some changes to your budget, like relying more upon personal savings, applying for other government benefits, or considering part-time employment to help you make ends meet.
Once the SSA officially announces the COLA, it should send out notices that tell you exactly how much money you can expect per month next year. But you can get pretty close by just adding the COLA percentage to your existing checks. Then, you can begin to figure out how far this will get you and how much more you'll need to cover all your expenses.
