Every October, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for the upcoming year.
Up until recently, that announcement was supposed to be around Oct. 15 -- right after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases September's inflation report. But with the federal government closed until further notice, it seemed as if that report wouldn't be released anytime soon.
New information from the BLS, however, suggests we could be getting the COLA announcement sooner than expected. Here's when it might be coming, what it might be, and how that might affect your retirement.
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When will the new COLA be released?
The SSA calculates the COLA by averaging Consumer Price Index data from July, August, and September. That average is compared to the figure from the same period the year prior, and if it's higher, the percentage difference will be next year's COLA.
Before the government shut down, the BLS was expected to release September's Consumer Price Index data on Oct. 15. But with that office almost entirely furloughed, it was unlikely the report would be published before the government reopened.
However, on Oct. 10, the BLS published an update noting that September's inflation report would be released on Oct. 24. Generally, the SSA announces the new COLA almost immediately after the BLS inflation report is published.
What might next year's adjustment be?
We won't know the official 2026 COLA until the SSA makes the announcement later this month, but nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League has estimated that it will land at 2.7%.
That figure is based on already available inflation data, as well as the projected data from September. If September's numbers are significantly different from the estimates, the COLA may be higher or lower than predicted.
The average retired worker collects just over $2,000 per month in benefits, according to August 2025 data from the SSA. A 2.7% COLA, then, would amount to a raise of around $56 per month.
While any boost in benefits is helpful to a degree, for many retirees, next year's COLA may be underwhelming. Inflation has stayed stubbornly high throughout the year, and tariffs have also taken a bite out of many retirees' budgets.
Medicare Part B premiums are also expected to increase from $185 per month this year to a projected $206.50 per month in 2026, according to this year's Medicare Trustees Report. Because Medicare premiums are typically deducted from Social Security checks, that $21.50 monthly increase will eat up a significant chunk of the COLA raise for the average retiree.
What does this mean for retirees?
It doesn't hurt to keep an eye out for the COLA announcement to help budget for 2026, but for the most part, retirees may want to avoid relying too heavily on this adjustment to make ends meet.
Again, any extra cash can help pay the bills, especially with many older adults stretched thin financially right now. But with Social Security not going as far as it used to, it may be wise to start finding ways to reduce your dependence on your benefits.
According to a report from The Senior Citizens League, Social Security benefits lost around 20% of their buying power between 2010 and 2024. If you can swing it, finding a source of passive income or going back to work temporarily could have a bigger impact on your budget than any COLA.
This won't be possible for everyone, but if you can beef up your savings even slightly, you won't need to worry quite as much about future COLAs falling short. No matter where the 2026 adjustment lands, it's wise to keep realistic expectations about how far that money will go.
