The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, announcement will be delayed a bit, due to the government shutdown. The short reason is that the COLA is based on third quarter inflation data, and the September consumer price index (CPI) report is produced by a government agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, the data was not released as expected.
However, recent reports indicate that the BLS is bringing back some of its workers to get the September CPI report finalized, and it is now scheduled to be released on Friday, Oct. 24, at 8:30am eastern time. And the 2026 Social Security COLA should be finalized almost immediately after.
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That's a long way to say that we don't know for sure what the COLA will be just yet. But we have a pretty good idea. After all, we already have finalized inflation data from two of the three months that will be used to calculate the COLA, so unless the missing report is a complete surprise one way or the other, we know about what to expect.
What will the 2026 Social Security COLA be?
According to the latest estimate from the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League, the 2026 Social Security COLA is expected to be 2.7%. This would go into effect starting with the payment Social Security recipients get in January.
Of course, we have no way to know what the average Social Security benefit will be at the time the COLA takes effect. But it shouldn't be too different from the current average, which is $1,864.87 per month for the 70.1 million Social Security beneficiaries. If the COLA is 2.7% as expected, this means that the average in January 2026 will be about $1,915.
This is the overall average, so here's a rundown of what a 2.7% COLA would mean for specific types of beneficiaries:
|
Type of Beneficiary |
2025 Average Monthly Benefit |
After 2.7% COLA |
|---|---|---|
|
Overall |
$1,865 |
$1,915 |
|
Retired Workers |
$2,008 |
$2,062 |
|
Spouses of Retired Workers |
$955 |
$981 |
|
Survivors |
$1,575 |
$1,618 |
|
Disabled Workers |
$1,583 |
$1,626 |
Data source: August 2025 Social Security Statistical Snapshot. All figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These are the top line numbers
It's worth noting that all of the expected average benefits are the 'top line' numbers, meaning that they are the average Social Security benefit before any taxes or other deductions are taken out. And there's one deduction in particular that could make the 2026 COLA not nearly as beneficial as it seems -- Medicare.
Social Security beneficiaries who are 65 years of age or older typically have their Medicare Part B premiums deducted from their monthly benefits, similar to how employees often have health insurance premiums deducted from their paychecks.
Well, Medicare Part B premiums are increasing in 2026 -- and at a faster rate than the COLA.
In 2025, the Medicare Part B premium is $185 per month for most beneficiaries. In 2026, this is expected to rise to $206.50 -- an increase of more than 11%. For the average 65-and-older retired worker, this means that the expected $54 monthly increase will actually look like $32.50.
The bottom line is that the Social Security COLA is just one piece of the puzzle. And the numbers in the chart above are only averages. You can figure out how much your Social Security payment will be after a 2.7% COLA by multiplying your current benefit amount (before any deductions) by 1.027. But don't forget to consider the impact of Medicare premiums and any other deductions.
