The average Social Security check reached a major milestone when it crossed $2,000 per month for the first time earlier this year. Now, with the announcement of the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), average benefits will climb even higher in January.
If you've been struggling with rising costs, a Social Security benefit bump probably can't come fast enough. But there are also some downsides to rising checks that you may need to plan for next year.
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Social Security checks will get a 2.8% COLA next year
The Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% COLA for 2026 on Oct. 24, 2025. This will take effect with your December 2025 payment, which goes out in January 2026.
Since the COLA is a percentage, everyone will see a slightly different increase. The estimated monthly benefit for January 2026 before the COLA is factored in is expected to be about $2,015 for retired workers. Married couples receiving benefits have an estimated monthly benefit of $3,120 in January 2026 before the COLA.
Adding 2.8% to these estimates brings them to $2,071 and $3,208 -- increases of $56 and $88, respectively. But you might get more or less than this. You can estimate what your Social Security benefit will look like in 2026 by adding 2.8% to your current checks. The Social Security Administration will also send you personalized COLA notices in December giving your exact benefit amount, so watch out for that.
The downsides of larger Social Security checks
The 2.8% Social Security COLA was a little larger than projections estimated, and it's slightly above average compared to the last few decades. This is due to rising inflation. Much of the extra you receive will likely get eaten up by the higher price tags on everyday expenses and an as-yet-unannounced Medicare Part B premium increase.
It's possible that the COLA may not help your benefits keep up with inflation. In that case, you may have to explore other options, like relying more upon your personal savings or working part-time, to cover what your checks don't.
Another potential downside to larger Social Security checks could arise when you get your tax bill. The federal government still taxes your Social Security benefits if your provisional income -- adjusted gross income (AGI), plus any nontaxable interest from municipal bonds and half your annual Social Security benefit -- exceeds $25,000 for a single adult or $32,000 for a married couple.
The new senior tax deduction could reduce your provisional income somewhat, but that's not a guarantee that you'll avoid Social Security benefit taxes altogether. If you're concerned about how much you might owe, it's worth talking to an accountant so you can make a plan for 2026. You can either set money aside for your Social Security taxes on your own if you expect to owe something at the end of the year, or request that the Social Security Administration withhold money from checks.
Your state might tax your Social Security benefits as well. If you live in one of the relatively few states that will tax Social Security in 2026, check into whether you could owe these as well.
None of this is intended to discourage you from being excited about getting more Social Security benefits next year. More money is always helpful. But it's also important to be aware of the costs you could face, so you know exactly how far you'll have to stretch those dollars. If you're worried about coming up short, now's the time to start putting a plan into place that will help you balance your income and expenses next year.
