If you've been following the news on Social Security's upcoming cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, you may be seeing some initial estimates of what to expect in the new year.
COLAs are meant to help benefits keep pace with inflation. And they're especially important to seniors who get most or all of their retirement income from their Social Security benefits.
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Current estimates are calling for a Social Security COLA in the mid-3% range. Specifically, independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson estimates next year's COLA at 3.4%. while the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, thinks next year's COLA will be 3.6%.
But these numbers are by no means set in stone. They're just estimates. So it's important not to get too hung up on them. It's also important to know when to expect an official COLA to get released.
You'll want to pay attention in mid-October
Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The projections above are based on July's CPI-W, which is the only piece of the puzzle we have so far.
Once inflation data comes in for August and September, an official COLA can be announced. September's CPI-W is slated for release on Oct. 14, so that's the day the Social Security Administration (SSA) should be able to make 2027's COLA official and share other key program updates.
You may not have all of the information in mid-October
Even though the SSA may be prepared to share the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, that number doesn't tell the whole story. Seniors who are signed up for Social Security and Medicare at the same time pay for Part B out of their monthly benefits.
If there's an increase in the cost of Part B in 2027, it will eat into whatever Social Security COLA arrives. But it's not a given that news of Medicare's official Part B premium will be available by Oct. 14.
In fact, it's common for that information to trickle in later. Last year, for example, Medicare's standard Part B premium for 2026 was not revealed until mid-November.
Of course, it's worth noting that last year's Social Security COLA announcement was delayed as a result of the government shutdown. Hopefully, the same thing won't happen again this year, and you'll get more information on Oct. 14 so you can at least start planning financially for the new year.
