At this point, many Social Security recipients want to know what cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to expect in 2027. And if you're one of them, rest assured the wait is almost over.

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce an official 2027 COLA on Oct. 14. That's the day September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to drop.

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Social Security COLAs are based on third quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, a subset of the CPI. When there's an increase in the index year over year, Social Security benefits get a boost.

Current estimates are pointing to a much larger COLA for Social Security in 2027 than the 2.8% raise that arrived earlier this year. But for next year's raise to really have a positive impact, one key thing needs to happen.

Will the 2027 COLA actually outpace inflation?

The challenging thing about Social Security COLAs is that they're backward facing. In other words, they're based on previous inflation data.

The raise that arrives in January of 2027, for example, will be based on inflation readings from July, August, and September of 2026. And the problem is that if inflation picks up in 2027, even a seemingly generous COLA may not go so far.

This year, for example, inflation has wildly outpaced the 2.8% COLA that arrived in January. So even if next year's COLA is much higher, if a similar thing happens, Social Security benefits could lose out on buying power. However, if inflation cools or moderates, the upcoming COLA could be a huge win for Social Security recipients.

What the numbers say so far

Based on inflation readings from July and August, next year's Social Security COLA could be 3.5% to 3.6%, according to experts. September's data is still the missing piece of that puzzle.

Even if inflation cools in September, it's likely that the 2027 COLA will outpace 2026's raise. But whether it actually helps seniors will hinge on what inflation has in store for the new year.

Without a crystal ball, there's no way to know. For this reason, Social Security recipients should keep their expectations in check.

And if you're someone who's banking on a large Social Security COLA in the new year, do recognize that it may not improve your financial picture all that much. Going back to work in some capacity could be a much more effective way to give your finances a boost, even if next year's raise is substantial.

A 3.6% COLA, for example, might raise your monthly income by about $75 if you collect the average Social Security benefit today, which is roughly $2,088. But you might easily earn three to four times that sum by working part-time, which could give you a lot more breathing room.