Risks of using run rate
It's easy to use run rate too liberally, and companies can use run rate numbers to make their performance look better than it is -- although a good management team doesn't do this. A company's calculated run rate can also be misleading in other ways.
Most businesses experience some kind of seasonality, meaning that performance naturally peaks in one part of the year and slows in another. In the retail industry, sales typically spike during the holiday season, so the fourth-quarter performance is usually the best. Some retailers even make most or all of their profits during the fourth quarter.