The Metals Company (TMC +6.39%) reported second quarter 2025 results on August 14, highlighting a $23.6 billion combined net present value (NPV) for its key projects, a major $85.2 million strategic investment from Korea Zinc, and a clear timeline targeting initial production by Q4 2027. The company also advanced regulatory milestones under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and reinforced its board to support project execution. The following insights detail the most significant strategic, operational, and financial developments from the call.
Korea Zinc investment strengthens TMC’s U.S. supply chain
In June 2025, Korea Zinc, the world’s largest nonferrous smelter, invested $85 million in the company, positioning itself for U.S.-derived nodule processing and potential new facilities in the U.S. This partnership aligns with recent White House meetings focused on critical mineral supply chain resilience and supports the company’s downstream ambitions.
"In June, we announced a landmark strategic investment of $85 million from Korea's Inc, the world's largest smelter of nonferrous metals. Korea's Inc is positioned to use TMC's USA nodule-derived materials to produce refined metals copper foil, and p cam in their existing facilities in South Korea and potentially build new facilities here in The USA. To further that ambition in August, I traveled to DC with Chairman Choi, Among others, we met with David Copley, the president's critical mineral czar, to discuss securing domestic supply chains and advancing US mineral independence."
-- Gerard Barron, CEO
This capital infusion not only secures funding for near-term milestones but also deepens end-market ties and aligns the company with U.S. national priorities, increasing the likelihood of future federal support and downstream development opportunities.
Regulatory progress accelerates TMC’s production timeline
The company achieved full regulatory compliance for exploration under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), advancing toward certification and leveraging proposed rule amendments that could materially shorten permitting time. The prefeasibility study (PFS) for the NORI-D area models production starting in Q4 2027, with C1 nickel cash costs of just over $1,000 per metric ton during steady-state production (2031-2043), placing the company in the industry’s first quartile cost curve.
"And on August 12, Noah confirmed full compliance for our exploration license applications, another important milestone that validates the thoroughness of our submission and moves us to the next stage in the process. And I'm pleased to say that Noah has begun the process of certifying these applications. A hundred-day process that started on July 27 and July 28. Each regulatory milestone derisks the project and strengthens the investment case. And we are systematically progressing through a transparent US regulatory process. And with a clear path ahead toward first production from NORED in Q4 2027."
-- Gerard Barron, CEO
These regulatory achievements reduce project risk and support the company’s ability to meet its Q4 2027 production target, enhancing its competitive position in the critical minerals sector.
PFS shows disciplined capital phasing and robust economics
The August 2025 PFS reported 164 million wet tons of recoverable nodules at NORI-D, with modeled steady-state EBITDA margins of 43% from 2031 to 2043 and annual production of 10.8 million wet tons during steady state. Offshore preproduction capital expenditures (CapEx) were reduced to less than $500 million, while the bulk of the $4.4 billion onshore CapEx for U.S. refinery capacity is assumed to be spent in the 2030s, after the project is generating significant revenue.
"For the prefeasibility study, we've been able to bring that offshore preproduction number down to less than $500 million for the offshore component. And where possible, we've assumed contracting the services we need and only deploying CapEx where without deploying CapEx ourselves, we wouldn't be able to get the service. And as a result, our development CapEx assumes for $4.4 billion onshore for construction of the refining capacity to match the offshore production. This approach ensures that we can deliver critical products to The US as contemplated by NOAA regulations while significantly increasing our payables. By producing a higher value product, again, nickel sulfate. Cobalt sulfate, before any US refineries are built we have an opportunity to either give offtake to Korea's zinc for our alloy and matte on the condition that processed materials are returned to The US, or we can toll through their facility and return processed materials to The US ourselves. Because we've not yet developed the definitive agreements with Korea's Inc, some of the production is left at the alloy and mat level. And as far as The US refining capacity, we're aiming to build that together. And many of the meetings that Jared talked about and many that we expect to occur in the coming months are to give that effect. But as I said earlier this month during the strategy day, not gonna bite off more than we can chew. And we do expect to be in production and producing significant revenue prior to greenlighting any such onshore spending. In fact, approximately $4.2 billion of this $4.4 billion onshore CapEx estimate is assumed to be spent in the 2030s, well after we've been in production for some time. Generating significant revenue."
-- Craig Shesky, CFO
This phased, capital-light approach mitigates financing risk and maximizes project flexibility, allowing the company to scale onshore investments only after establishing cash flow from offshore operations.
Looking Ahead
Management reiterated guidance for first commercial production from NORI-D by Q4 2027, subject to final regulatory approvals and additional clarity on joint capital investments with Allseas. The company expects provisional regulatory approval by year-end 2025, followed by final permitting in 2026, with substantial onshore CapEx to be deployed only after initial cash flow is established. No new quantitative revenue or EBITDA guidance was provided for 2025, but management stated that cash on hand of approximately $120 million as of July 4, 2025, is sufficient to meet all working capital and CapEx requirements for at least the next 12 months.
