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Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN)
Q2 2019 Earnings Call
Aug 07, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:


Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Sunrun second-quarter financial conference call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Patrick Jobin. You may begin sir.

Patrick Jobin -- Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and thank you to those on the call for joining us today. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this conference call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

Please also note these statements are being made as of today and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. On the call today are Lynn Jurich, Sunrun's co-founder and CEO; Bob Komin, Sunrun's CFO; and Ed Fenster, Sunrun's co-founder and executive chairman. The presentation today will use slides which are available on our website at www.investors.sunrun.com. And now let me turn the call over to Lynn.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Patrick. We are pleased to share Sunrun's second quarter results and progress against our strategic priorities. In the quarter, we added 12,600 customers representing 103 megawattsof deployments, a 13% year-over-year improvement. We generated $95 million of net present value and created NPV per watt of $1.11 or ninety five hundred per customer.

We generated $44 million in cash and since the last call have achieved record low capital costs in our financings. Sunrun offers households a superior energy experience, and our value proposition continues to increase. We were not surprised to see EEI, the utilities trade group, raise its capex forecast yet again just a few weeks ago. EEI increased their utility capex projection for the next two years by 15% from their prior estimates.

It now tops $250 billion and is at all-time highs. With limited growth in energy consumption and this significant increase in spending, doubled depreciation expense, will likely be passed to consumers in the form of higher electricity rates. At the same time, many customers are experiencing unreliable service, exacerbated by extreme weather and forced power shut-off. These pain points, combined with the attraction of clean solar energy and battery storage, are driving consumers to engage meaningfully in their personal energy usage for the first time.

Solar is proving to be a unique access point to obtain significant relationships with customers. Today, I wanna highlight the California market to show how much customer growth lies ahead and how distributed assets will help create a more resilient, clean system. First, our modeling shows that in California, we are just now exiting the early adopter phase and moving into the early majority phase, an area of the curve that is twice the size of the earlier segments. Second, the California mandate for new homes will be additive to the growth during the next few years, both from new home construction and the increased category awareness it will bring, as home solar and batteries become mainstream.

We are engaged in conversations or contracted with half of the top 10 homebuilders in California and are gaining share. Finally, many Californian communities are racing to retire fossil fuel plants and replace them with virtual power plants comprised of solar and battery storage. Los Angeles, Glendale and Oakland are recent examples. Sunrun is positioned to win with our Brightbox offering, targeted customer acquisition capabilities, and growing density and scale advantages.

In July, we added to our energy services award in ISO-New England with another landmark contract in Oakland. This contract helped replace retiring fossil fuel power plants with home solar and battery systems on low-income housing. The contract is particularly meaningful, because it will help disadvantaged communities who often experience the harmful impact of fossil fuel pollution the most. Furthermore, it shows that Community Choice Aggregators in California are starting to realize that home solar and batteries are a valuable and cost-effective resource planning tool.

For context, the virtual power plant opportunity could be nine gigawatts of potential in California alone. This is the equivalent of 50 fossil fuel power plants or four times the size of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant slated to retire in 2025. We expect other states will follow this trend. Because of the huge potential of battery storage paired with solar, we continue to invest in Brightbox, even though it is causing short-term headwinds from slower install times, an immature supply chain, and permitting and interconnection obstructions.

We have now installed more than 6,000 Brightbox battery systems and continue to expect demand is ready to unleash with anticipated cost reductions and severe climate events. We recently expanded Brightbox to Texas, New Jersey and Vermont, and the service is now available in nine states in Puerto Rico. We are encouraged by the growth in grid services programs offered by forward-thinking utilities that recognize consumer-centered solutions are a key path to decarbonizing. Utilities in Vermont, Long Island, and Massachusetts, are now joining grid operators and offering programs that enable batteries to participate in capacity markets and other grid services revenue streams.

Brightbox represents over 10% of our direct business overall and more than 25% in California. Our market position and long-term potential continues to improve. Customer demand in our order book are strong. We are forecasting more than 20% annual growth in orders for Q3, and our direct business continues to grow much faster than that.

However, the tight labor market is making timely hiring in our direct business more challenging than we expected, resulting in growing backlogs. So on the positive side, our focus on efficiency resulted in cost improvements. You can see that Sunrun Built costs improved 7% both year over year and from Q1, despite wage increases, tariffs, and increased battery mix. However, we are behind our staffing plan required to realize customer demand in Q3.

We are also prioritizing Brightbox, which we believe is the right long-term decision, but creates longer cycle times and requires additional crew training. We expect to deploy between 107 and 110 megawatts in Q3. We are working to increase capacity to reduce backlog in Q4 and realize expected growth in orders. I'll now turn the call over to Bob, our CFO, to review Q2 performance and to discuss guidance in more detail.

Bob Komin -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Lynn. NPV in the second quarter was approximately $9,500 per customer, or $1.11 per watt, an improvement of $0.13 from a year ago and up $0.05 from Q1. Project value was approximately $37,900 per customer or $4.44 per watt in Q2. As a reminder, project value is very sensitive to modest changes in geographic channel and tax equity fund mix.

Turning now to creation costs on Slide 8. In Q2 total creation costs were approximately $28,400 per customer, or $3.33 per watt, an improvement of $0.13 or 4%, from last quarter. We expect creation costs will continue to improve from Q2 levels in the second half of this year. As with project value, creation costs can fluctuate quarter to quarter.

As a reminder, our cost tax not directly comparable to those of our peers because of our channel partner business. Blended installation cost per watt, which includes the costs of solar projects deployed by our channel partners, as well as installation costs incurred by Sunrun Built Systems, was $2.50 per watt, an $0.08 improvement from last quarter. Install costs for systems built by Sunrun, improved by $0.13 or 7%, both sequentially and year over year to $1.82 per watt. In Q2, our sales and marketing costs were $0.80 per watt, up $0.02 from Q1.

Our total sales and marketing unit costs are calculated by dividing costs in the period by total megawatts deployed. A higher mix of direct business results in higher reported sales and marketing costs per watt, but it also means there will be lower blended installation costs per watt over time due to the higher mix of direct business installations at the lower cost per watt. In Q2, G&A costs were $0.28 per watt, an improvement of $0.01 from Q1. Finally, when we calculate creation costs, we subtract the GAAP gross margin contribution realized from our platform services.

This includes our distribution, racking, and lead generation businesses, as well as solar systems we sell for cash or with a third-party loan. Our platform services gross margin was $0.25 per watt in Q2. In the second quarter, we deployed 103 megawatts. Our cash and third party loan mix was 17% in Q2 in line with recent levels.

We expect this mix to continue in the high teens for the rest of the year. Turning now to our balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with $354 million in total cash, a $44 million increase from last quarter. We continue to expect cash generation of over $100 million in 2019. Quarterly cash generation can fluctuate due to the timing of project finance activities, but this represents our best view based on our plans for the remainder of the year.

We define cash generation as the change in our total cash, less the change in recourse debt. Also, please note that our cash generation outlook excludes any strategic opportunities beyond our current plans, and also does not include ITC safe harboring activities. Moving on to guidance on Slide 9. We continued to expect full-year 2019 deployments to grow between 16% and 18%.

As our direct business outpaces our overall growth rate, more expenses are front loaded for sales and deployment capacity. The dynamics of the tight labor market, and more front-loaded expenses puts pressure on NPV and cash generation. Despite this, we still expect to generate a hundred million or more in total cash for 2019 and to exceed last year's $1.08 NPV result. We also expect to be in the range of our previous $1.15 NPV target for the year.

As mentioned earlier, in the third quarter, we expect deployments to be in the range of 107 to 110 megawatts. Now let me turn it over to Ed.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Bob. Today I plan to discuss our recent project finance activities along with our capital strategy for the remainder of 2019. I'll also touch on net earning assets and capital runway. Reductions in long-term interest rates and growing interest in residential solar assets are causing capital costs and advance rates to improve across the entire capital stack.

Since our last call, we executed transactions in the ABS market, bank market, and subordinated debt market, all on record terms. In May, we completed a securitization of assets that have been operating for five or more years, so they no longer included a tax equity investor. The notes were priced at a 4% yield with an 80% advance rate. The advance rate of 80% is nearly 10 percentage points higher than the senior tranche in Sunrun's prior securitization and represents the highest advance rate for any similarly rated tranche in a solar lease and PPA transaction to date.

The yield of 4% is the lowest yield for any solar lease and PPA transaction to date. Combined with the subordinated debt on the transaction, which brought the total proceeds to over a hundred percent of the portfolio's contracted gross earning assets, the weighted average cost of debt was 5.75%, or 6.17%, including all fees. This transaction presents another data point in support of using a 6% discount rate to calculate asset value. Since we are now able to structure these trends, these sorts of facilities solely as non-recourse debt, rather than structured equity, we are able to retain upside on the portfolio over time.

Although we received significant gross proceeds in this refinancing, net proceeds were materially reduced by swap breakage costs. As we've discussed before, when refinancing a hedged portfolio, we don't materially benefit when base interest rates fall, and we likewise aren't materially harmed when they rise. We will begin to see incremental proceeds from these lower capital costs as we place into service newly built systems in this new lower interest rate environment. In July, we've repriced $229 million of bank debt, and we reduced the spread to LIBOR plus 212.5 basis points from 275, stepping up over time to 300 basis points.

We also increased the advance rate from 68% to 72%. We repriced, rather than refinanced this facility for expediency into lower transaction-related costs. We expect to execute another debt transaction in either the ABS or bank market during Q4, depending on market conditions. Moving to Slide 10, at quarter end, net earning assets was $1.4 billion, an increase of $139 million or 11% year over year.

Net earning assets is our way to describe the value of the cash flows to Sunrun shareholders after payments to financing counterparties. Cash was $354 million. Total cash, less recourse debt, increased $91 million from the prior-year period, and increased $44 million from Q2. Turning finally to our pipeline, our project debt commitments provide runway through 2019, while our tax equity commitments extend into the second quarter of 2020.

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Lynn.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. And we'll now open it up for questions.

Questions & Answers:


Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Moses Sutton from Barclays. Your line is open.

Moses Sutton -- Barclays -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions. In light of the recent events, there's been a reinvigorated focus on creation cost despite maybe a bit of headwinds this quarter. You've averaged a 7% decline since 2015. Can you review your base case views on how much further this could go in future years, how this might be affected by Brightbox? Maybe any broader commentary on creation cost over time and its mix.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks for the question. There's a lot of opportunity there. So we're pursuing multiple ways to improve customer acquisition costs.

So on the installation side, what you saw Q2 was a lot better efficiency and utilization. Now we may be pushed too hard at that, at the risk of the Q3 install potential that we could have achieved. But you saw that significant quarter-over-quarter improvement there. You're going to see improvement in hardware pricing when the tariffs release and with more competition there.

We're also expecting to see improvements from streamlining and automating the whole process for permitting and interconnection, which will create a lot faster of cycle times from our customers trying to install, which is massively lower cost for the whole system. And then I think finally the customer and brand awareness that we will get with penetration will help. So all of those are the paths that we're pursuing across the board and there's a lot of opportunities in each one of those. I would say in the short term, what's happening is the customer values are supporting the creation costs.

So you know -- so if you look at markets where there are lower customer values, the creation costs are also lower. So there's economics 101 here with these attractive customers with our -- with each one of our customers on an upcoming value that's worth almost $10,000 to us. And so the costs support that. You're also going to see as we discussed with this, sort of unprecedented in a while, and labor market there there's pressure there and so what we have said is throughout the year we would expect modest improvement of creation costs, but not big ones.

So the way I would summarize that is, we're very bullish on the opportunity to reduce and tighten those costs across the board. But in the short term, the project values and NPVs are really strong. And we're gonna see slight improvement, but I wouldn't expect a significant improvement in the short run.

Moses Sutton -- Barclays -- Analyst

That's very helpful. I don't know if this relates, but there were -- one of the metrics that seem to be different in prior quarters was the average lease system size of about 8.5 kilowatts. Anything there, just mix. Maybe you can provide any comments there, also on the renewal value of $0.40 per watt, usually you are more in the $0.50 range based on your calculation.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Got it. I'll take the system size. There are some of the newer markets that we are growing and do tend to have larger system size. So one that we are based in that would be Texas, which is a market where people use a lot of airconditioning and have bigger houses than in California.

So I think as you -- as the mix starts to the penetrate in markets like that, you're going to see the size improved. I think we're also always getting better at finding the more -- you know, more attractive customers. And larger systems size generally yield more profitable project. So we also, the customers are constantly refining our model to achieve that as well.

On the renewal, I would say there is just variations quarter to quarter. We have also introduced 25-year contract in some places, whereas book value were exclusively 20 years. So that would cut that piece of the renewal in half in those instances.

Moses Sutton -- Barclays -- Analyst

Got it. And last one from me, not sure if you can provide this, but how much of your ongoing revenue and/or retained value is driven by SRECs? We see the broader category of incentive revenue, as well as some deferred revenue details. But the clean revenue number either nominally or as a percent of total, it's a bit obfuscated and I'm just wondering if you can provide that.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

So in the definition of any ANG, you are asking how much is attributed to SREC. right. So we've -- I'm going to defer to Ed here to make sure I'm saying this correctly. But it's just the contract what is actually contracted is reflected in that number.

So un-contracted SREC, anything that we don't have a contract for would be incremental to that data.

Moses Sutton -- Barclays -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen from ROTH Capital Partners. Your line is open. Your line is open. Your line is open.

Patrick Jobin -- Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

We can come back to Phil. We can move to the next question, operator.

Operator

Sure, sir. The next question comes from...

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst

Sorry, guys. Can you hear me OK?

Patrick Jobin -- Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Yeah. We can hear you now, Phil.

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst

OK. Great. OK. Sorry about that.

So first question is on the Q3 guide. How many megawatts do you think you left on the table as a result or do you think you will have left as a result of the longer cycle times and so forth? Historically your Q3 guide is between -- is up 10% to 20% sequentially over Q2. You know I think today your guidance is just 5% quarter to quarter. So I'm guessing it's the cycle times the tight labor market and so forth.

But what could it have been had you didn't have to deal with those issues.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. The way I would describe it is, for the back half of the year we have visibility into the customer deployments overall that we are guiding to. So it does look like a steep ramp in Q4 based on the Q3 guidance, but it's really just two components. It's reducing the backlog that we've accumulated and then the actual Q4 and then a pretty organic Q4 growth rate to hit the overall number.

So that's how I would describe those two components in the backlog.

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst

OK. And you're right. It is pretty steep for the implied Q4, call it 134 to 142 megawatts implied, that's a 19% quarter-over-quarter growth rate for Q3. Do you expect -- would you be able to reduce the labor tightness and cycle times enough to realize that Q4 guide and imply Q4 guide and what are the risks potentially around that?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

We do. And again we most importantly we have the visibility into the orders and the demand is there, and so we need to execute on hiring and/or finding third-party capacity to realize that. I think ideally we wouldn't be exiting Q3 with such a large backlog, but we'd really rather air it that way than having higher cost from underutilization. So if you're going to air one side, we were maybe a little too tight on that.

But the orders are there, so we believe we can execute to the capacity enhancement.

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst

OK. Thanks, Lynn. And then Ed you had mentioned in your remarks that you expect either in ABS or I think bank financing in Q4. If you were to do an ABS, do you expect it to be pre-flip assets? Or if not, what kind of asset base do you expect for the Q4 ABS.

Thanks.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Phil. Yes. The Q4 anticipated transaction would include recently placed in service systems. So there would be tax equity in that transaction.

Patrick Jobin -- Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Great. Thanks, Phil. I think, operator, we can take the next question.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Rebecca Yuan -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hi, guys. It's Rebecca Yuan in on for Brian. Thanks for taking our questions. So can you provide some details on your ITC safe harbor strategy and maybe thoughts on the odds of an extension and then are you able to position for both outcomes if we don't get an extension until near year end.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, this is Ed. Great question. So first, we are planning to avail ourselves of the IRS safe harbor rules by carrying excess inventory into next year, which obviously would extend our access to the 30% credit. We've been -- begun accumulating small amounts of this inventory already and are on track to close in on the requested credit facility for the equipment in Q4.

We are doing our best to structure it such that whether or not there is an ITC extension, we have kinda covered our bases in terms of risk and profit and some of that we view proprietary, but we'd be happy to discuss on a subsequent call. To your question about the odds of an ITC extension, I think our best thinking is still that's probably about 25%. And if it occurs, is likely to occur very close to the end of the year, potentially in connection with the appropriations bills or our tax expender bill. There is a measure introduced to extend it just recently which we think if it were enacted in law would be in connection with other larger bills that will need to be considered by the Congress between now and the end of the year.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

And I would just add, we're certainly of course planning the business to not count on that.

Rebecca Yuan -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. Thanks. And then, it looks like there is a heavier mix of megawatts from channel partners during the quarter on then where it's been trending recently. And so just how should we think about the mix going forward and the reduction in the blended cost per watt?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

So the -- perhaps what you were referring to is a higher mix of cash sale. So I think the cash sales increased from 15% to 17%. Or are you looking -- because underlying the channel versus direct which as you know we don't break out, our direct is actually growing faster than our channel business and so what that does to you over a period of time as you mention is reduce the funded installation costs. I think the comp first is -- if you look at last year's Q2 that was sort of -- it was an unusual comp, just because in that quarter the project value was down and the cost was down and that was fluctuations from quarter to quarter.

But if you look more normalized, you'll see that it's not really an outlet and in fact it's down $0.08 versus Q1. So we would expect that. The direct business is growing faster. We expect that in flow costs will come down in line with that.

Rebecca Yuan -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi, guys.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hello.

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hey, on a high level, are you guys comfortable with $1.15 per watt NPV as a target, especially as we see more battery employments in grid service modernization. I was wondering if that's where you're thinking about landing going forward.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

You're saying more generally or for the year?

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

More generally.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Let me -- I'll answer both. So for the year we are pleased with ending in that area as Bob said there's -- in that number there's a lot of fast growth in our direct business which puts some pressure on it, because we do recognize the expenses you know earlier. Over time, we believe there is an opportunity to improve that, which is even in our core business. So we certainly do see opportunities to do that.

It does also help, as I'd talked about in my commentary, that utility prices continue to really rise with the capex increases. So there's a lot of tailwinds on our ability to charge higher prices and there is cost reduction tailwinds as well. So we get -- we're getting benefit in both directions. In terms of the potential on the grid services revenue, we are -- we're really encouraged by the movement on-grid serves with utilities and with some of the meetings in California.

So that continues to be an opportunity we're very bullish about, but it's gonna take a little while to build. So we estimate that grid services can add 2,000 plus in NPV per customer and we have a lot of proof points that really support that in our pipeline and in active discussion. However, if you look at the percentage of our customers that are gonna be with a grid services contract, that's going to build slowly over time. So could it be 50% of our customers over in the foreseeable future, yes.

But it's not going to be a meaningful percentage over the next couple of years.

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Gotcha. And also, could you comment a little bit on the labor tightness. Is that ininstallation or sales and customer acquisition? Where are you really seeing that showing up and also what happens with that next year as the California rooftop mandate starts to really kick in, and that market starts to expand?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

That's a good question on the rooftop expansion. I think in terms of your first question on where you're seeingit, it's across the board, you know I think most acute. We were seeing it on the downstream installation side and pretty acutely seeing it in markets -- some key markets like California. So it really is across the board in terms of salepeople, staffing people in our Home Depot stores.

And on the construction side, so I would say across the board. I like our chances in that because we -- I think we are developing a difference in talent brand and a company that people wanna work toward. In terms of the new home construction, I mean, typically that is you know outsourced and there's a lot of contractors that serve that market. So I think that market is fairly booming back.

Home building as you know is quite cyclical. So I think they can ramp up and ramp down pretty easily and so I don't think that influences it in a huge amount.

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Great. And I mean, does this -- do higher labor costs you know think that the dealer model might be more attractive at this point? Or is that not really part of the equation yet?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

No. There will be no difference. I mean, that would flow though to a dealer just as it would flow through to Sunrun. I think if anything, again, developing a high quality place to work and a talent brand and other sort of retention efforts are gonna benefit some of the larger players like ourselves.

So I would -- I could see that as a competitive dynamic favoring us, as compared to the dealers.

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

OK. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning -- or good afternoon, rather. I'm losing my mind. How are you guys?

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Good. Good afternoon.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Excellent. So a quick question, given the meaningful proactive deenergization going on in California, specifically PG&E through the latest quarter and even today, can you discuss the customer demand inflection? I suppose you already alluded to a large backlog, if I quoted you right there Lynn. What are you seeing in terms of the customer uptick? It seems there is some of the other public data points out there seem to be very meaningful and very late. But I'd be curious what you're actually seeing on the ground.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think that those tailwinds will be huge, and -- but they're mostly on the comp. So the two tailwinds, I mean, maybe three tailwinds we are going to get from that is one. Electricity prices are going to have to increase and we haven't seen those really flow through like as they're going to, so that's going to cost them consumer pain.

You know, two, people are going to feel the pain of their power getting setup, but they haven't really felt that yet. It's been a pretty small group of people so far and while fire season really is just on the comp, so I don't think people have really suffered yet. And then, three, there's just a whole new appreciation from the dangers of climate change and just willingness for individuals to wanna chip in and make good decisions at their homes. So those tailwinds are enormous and give us confidence that California has a ton of runway.

However, I would say that we're just entering the fire season. We'reon early days in this, and so you are not going to see the demand uptick in a meaningful way until people have been through a couple outages.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

But maybe to just clarify real quickly. I mean, you talked about them huge and on the comp. Have you seen an uptick even in the isolated geographies that have experienced this? I mean, is this something that is perceivable in your numbers as you look at them where you have seeing some of these blackouts. Are you really waiting for 3Q to see that uptick that's materialized? And also maybe even within the storage component, because presumably this would be a solar storage sales rather than just a storage cell.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Right. Yeah, I mean, the way I would answer that, so we expect our order volume to grow 20% year over year in Q3. Independent of this outages, I would still expected to grow at that level. So it's not the single issue that's moving us about into these fast growth rates.

It's not materially influencing our numbers in the current quarter or even over the next couple of quarters. I do believe it will, but it's not materially changing things this quarter or next quarter.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Got it. More of a wait and see, but it seems like a good tailwind kind of thing.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

I would say it'd go stronger than wait and see. I would say customers, people, just need to live it before they make a decision to put panels on the roof and a battery.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

If I can just one more real quickly. Can you discuss the opportunity to leverage like the Oakland contract and other similar constructs around expanding your CCA penetration to existing customers in a more enhanced customer acquisition venue?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. I think this is another entry barrier and scale advantage for us is entering into those PPT programs, because what we're going to be able to do is offer our customers all the benefits of the solar plus storage, which is cleaner, cheaper energy, plus backup power. But we're also, as being part of our virtual power plants, are going to be able to monitize that battery for additional value. So it just enhances the customer value proposition.

The other thing it does is it gives you a marketing and urgency message to the consumer. So now if the city of Los Angeles has come to help us replace this gas power plant, we've endorsed Sunrun as our provider. It really helps on the customer acquisition, on that customer acquisition costs in a pretty differentiated way. So we are very excited for the promise of these opportunities.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Alright. Great. Well, thank you very much.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. One other thing I would add there that you'll see in our 10-Q is that we've also expanded our capabilities to be able to develop solar in multifamily and low-income buildings, which is part of the Oakland contract we won. So we are also working to bring a more comprehensive solution for these virtual power plants so that we can put solar on our single family home, plus well income communities, plus multifamily so we can really provide more solar access. So we are excited about that progress on those efforts as well.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Julien.

Operator

[Operator instructions] Next question comes from the line of Joe Osha from JMP Securities. Your line is open.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Hi, everybody.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Joe.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Joe.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Hi. Kinda following on Julien's line of questioning there for a moment. When you look at some of these communities that are out there in areas that are at risk of being deenergized, has anyone looked at the possibility when you deenergize a line of -- will the ISO let you sort of wind an entire community if you have a capacity arrangement in place? Is that type of thing possible? Or is the protection or the backup power, if you will, still going to be available only on a residents-by-residents basis.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think we're absolutely working those opportunity. Now one of the things that -- one of the reasons that we having success in the early days with the munis and the CCAs is they don't have quite a good complex regulatory framework as some of the IOUs. So I think there is some blocking and tackling to get through the market and the market mechanisms, where the market mechanisms are really working nicely for this than in the North East.

So the North East is really -- so anybody who is competitive in California, the North East is crushing California on this. So they're already the ISOs is allowing batteries in to their wholesale capacity market. There's multiple utilities that are setting up simple programs where we can plug our batteries into their capacity and ancillary services market, so that's happening in the North East. That's going to be a model.

In California, where the early wins and the early attention to this are really through the CCAs and the munis and then at the same time we are working the regularity structures and the market structures to try to provide this kind of [Inaudible] because this thing totally make financial sense. Ed will probably want to add something.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

OK. So I would say there are two types of customers who could be impacted by a blackout. You can have a community that is at the end of a long transmission or distribution line that is at risk in fires. Or you can have a community whose actual wires are in a risky spot.

So the best opportunity for the micro grid, which is what you are describing where you are ion the community, is where the transmission line that's at risk rather than necessary the distribution lines in that neighborhood. So there's definitely a lot of interest in that and it will take some coordination between companies like ours and the utilities, but also largely the regulators to realize that. PG&E for an example sent an email to its customers encouraging them to buy portable generators. So I think there's gonna be a little bit of work in order to sort of realize the benefits and to manifest the benefits that solar and storage together can bring, but we do see that as a mid to longer-term opportunity.

Certainly, in the meantime, anyone can take action immediately to ensure the security and safety of their own system as on a stand-alone basis.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

OK. And then kind of as a follow on from that, when you are looking at how you think about pricing BrightBox at this point is, is there kind of an implicit assumption there that there will be some additional monetization from grid services? Or is BrightBox just with the initial contract still a positive NPV proposition for you guys.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

More the latter. So we've been really consistently focused on generating day one cash, so really more the latter. I think there could be -- as these again -- it's market by market, a judgment call on how likely you think those revenues are going to be, but we've taken, we've been a little more conservative on that.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

OK. One kooky question and then one other one. Here's the kooky one. Given the expertise you are developing and going to your munis and CCAs and your IOUs and so forth, would you ever potentially be in the position of doing a sleeve for somebody else's capacity? I mean, you've had these companies that green charge and stand and what not putting batteries out there that they can't monetize.

Would you ever start aggregating other people's capacity or is that just silly?

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Joe. This is Ed. So absolutely that is an opportunity and in fact several developers have called us to propose that particularly, I think, C&I developers. And right now, obviously where we are heading down, operationalizing everything for ourselves.

But in certain instances, we actually have partnered with other people and we do see that, as a growing opportunity over time, but one that we haven't quite activated on the priority list yet.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

OK. And then the last one, Ed for you. That comment you made on the ABS deal with the subordinated debt on it being more than a hundred percent of contract, does that mean that subordinate lenders are lending to you on renewal or help me understand a little bit what the underpinning was there.

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So obviously, a lenders base case, I don't always see, so their exact assumptions are uncertain to me. But my assumption is that there is value being provided to the renewal portion. But I think fundamentally, just as a debt instrument, what matters is the face value and the interest rate as far as we're concerned.

And so we just see it as an instrument that is more than a hundred percent of the contracted value out of certain interest rate. But potentially refinance -- sorry, renewal revenues may be necessary to repay the note if it were to fully amortize out over a multi-decade period.

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

OK. Thanks. I could go on all day, but I'll step aside. Thank you very much.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer and Company Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks a lot, guys. So you're looking at the portfolio, the potential capital partners and it sounds like you're moving closer to having more capital comp earlier in the process -- early in the life cycle. Can you give us a sense of the diversity of options that you have in front of you and particularly given the deal with that did with Con Edison, that sort of transaction where you have basically no cash upfront and keep the equity steady seems pretty compelling from a cost to capital perspective. Can you give us a sense of the depth and the breadth of options that you're evaluating and how we should think about the cost of capital and structure, evolution for Sunrun over the next, call it, four or six quarters.

Bob Komin -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So we're seeing a significant increase in depth of market. You know some data points there, the subordinated debt transaction priced pretty confident, at least 200 basis points below what we've seen from peers and was a competitive process with a great deal of interest. Although interestingly, it's still probably 200 basis points above what you might see in utility scale transactions, where I believe over a three to five-year period of time, we ought to be able to demand lower spreads than utility scale transactions given that they have a single-week investment-grade counterparty and certainly California utility has been an extreme example of that today.

We continue to see growing interest in the ABS market, the transaction that we've cleared there had a number of new investors than we've seen, new investors come into the space during the year. When we reprised the bank deal that I mentioned we had seven lenders, that was a syndicated facility. We lost none of them in the reprising. So I'm very comfortable in the depth of market at the moment and the interest in the assets.

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer and Company Inc. -- Analyst

OK. And then just on the technology side, certainly for a period of time there were a number of companies looking at figuring out how to shorten installation times through new devices. Do you see real innovation happening in that area at this point? And is there a way to mitigate some of that labor tightness through migration to different technology solution?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. There are opportunities certainly, so there's still a lot of physical visits to the home as an example. So salesperson to the home is also typically for most of them you would need to send a subsequent person out there to examine features, the roof, and things. So there's solutions like drones and other things that are showing some promise to eliminate some of that, so that's one example.

The installation, like, once you shipped a clear, on-side if you shave an hour or two that's helpful, but that's really not quite as meaningful. But more meaningful reduction in the overall creation costs I think will come as the industry moves from say if a 60-day cycle time from a customer side to getting installed where there's a lot of time to go back and forth, a lot of customer questions, customer apathy and things and moving it tighter to what you see in international markets where someone signs up and they get installed seven days later. That's what really is going to help eliminate a lot of the waste. And I think we are making, good -- slow but good progress, AHJ by AHJ, to try to get the online and automated permitting interconnection rules, so that we can really tight those times.

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer and Company Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks. And then just one final question for me. Just in terms of continuing the growth trajectory, do you guys feel like you need to expand geographies to support growth into next year and are you marking those investments now and should we start to seeing those in the financials?

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

No. Any strong growth next year is not -- does not necessitate geographic expansion. So we would not -- we would expect deeper in our existing markets versus big geo expansion.

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer and Company Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks so much you guys.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Colin.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Lynn Jurich.

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Alright. Well, with that we'll get back to work increasing our capacity for installations and look forward to talking to you guys next week -- or excuse me, next quarter.

Unknown speaker

Everyone else has left the call.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 49 minutes

Call participants:

Patrick Jobin -- Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Lynn Jurich -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Bob Komin -- Chief Financial Officer

Ed Fenster -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Moses Sutton -- Barclays -- Analyst

Philip Shen -- ROTH Capital Partners -- Analyst

Rebecca Yuan -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Michael Weinstein -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Julien Dumoulin-Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Joe Osha -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer and Company Inc. -- Analyst

Unknown speaker

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