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Eagle Materials Inc (NYSE:EXP)
Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Feb 4, 2020, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to Eagle Materials Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Eagle's President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Michael Haack. Mr. Haack, please go ahead, sir.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Welcome to Eagle Materials' conference call for our third fiscal quarter of 2020. We are glad you could be with us today. Joining me today are Craig Kesler, our Chief Financial Officer and Bob Stewart, Executive Vice President of Strategy, Corporate Development and Communications.

There will be a slide presentation made in connection with this call. To access it, please go to eaglematerials.com and click on the link to the webcast. While you're accessing the slides, please note that the first slide covers our cautionary disclosure regarding forward-looking statements made during the call. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause results differ from those discussed during the call. For further information, please refer to this disclosure, which is also included at the end of the press release.

Our results this quarter have been consistent with the outlook that we have been sharing with you and business conditions remain favorable across our construction markets. Moving forward, we continue to expect demand growth in the low-single digits for this foreseeable future. On both the Heavy side, notably the Portland Cement, and on the Light side specifically in Gypsum Wallboard. We also recognize that there are risks to this outlook. But as I have stated before, we continue to believe these risks talk to the upside for calendar 2020. Overall, it was a solid quarter for Eagle Materials. Consolidated revenues were up 5% driven by increased Cement and Wallboard shipments, strong operational execution and improved Cement pricing.

Our Cement sales volumes were up 7% to a record 1.4 million tons. Operating earnings from Cement were up 15% over the same quarter a year ago, due to higher sales volumes. Wallboard demand remains healthy and our shipments were up 2%. However, soft pricing in Wallboard was a headwind affecting operating earnings for the segment this quarter. We do have price increases out across all markets in Wallboard and in Cement as well.

I'd like to take a moment to update you on major expansion, developments under way at both Heavy and Light sides of our businesses. Starting with the Light side. We announced a significant expansion project at our Republic Paperboard operations aimed at expanding productive capacity there by roughly 20%. The goal of this expansion is to meet market demand, lower current costs and minimize future cost exposure to light fiber. The project entails its installation of proven technology, but it is technology that is new to Gypsum Wallboard paper manufacturing industry. Republic is a world-class operation and the talented team there will utilize this technology to further extend our competitive advantages on paper performance.

The project is expected to be complete this spring. And we expect to begin ramping up paper production in the second calendar quarter of 2020. Most of the equipment spend is complete for this project.

On the Heavy side, we announced during the quarter that we entered into a definitive agreement to purchase the Kosmos Cement plant, seven terminals and related assets from the CEMEX, Buzzi joint venture. We are on track to close on this transaction in the fourth fiscal quarter and begin enjoying in immediate contribution to cash flow starting next fiscal year. The transaction has now cleared HSR review.

We're quite excited about the acquisition as this further extends our reach in the US heartland footprint, consistent with our growth and plant network strategy. This acquisition will also provide the Cement business with even more capacity to serve US heartland cement markets. The timing of this transaction, could not have come at a better time given our intention to separate the company into heavy and wide stand-alone entities this summer. While we're on the topic of that separation. I want to underscore that we are still on track for a summer launch of the two parts of the company, as we have indicated in prior communications.

Also as a preview the separation, we have been evaluating options for the non-core heavy side assets. Specifically, including our frac sand processing and distribution assets. While we continue to work on this process. I have no announcements to make yet other than to say, this quarter we wrote down the frac sand assets and have continued to operate this business on a near cash flow break even base. While we have been evaluating the alternatives.

It is worth noting that excluding this non-routine impairment items, our adjusted net earnings per share was up 22% over the third fiscal quarter a year ago. That's all from me as far as an introductory remarks. Now, let me turn it over to Craig to go through the financials for the quarter.

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Michael. Eagle's third quarter revenue improved 5% to $350 million, reflecting increased Cement sales volume and pricing, improved Wallboard and Paperboard sales volume and the results of a small Concrete and Aggregates acquisition. The acquired business contributed approximately $9 million of revenue during the quarter.

Third quarter EPS was a loss of $2.77, which includes the impact of several non-routine items during the quarter, most notably in asset impairment charge of $224 million related to the Oil and Gas Proppants business. Other non-recurring items were business development costs and the effective an outages linked to the planned expansion of our papermill. Excluding the impact of these non-routine items, adjusted EPS was $1.51.

Turning now to segment performance. This next slide highlights the results of our Heavy Materials sector, which includes our Cement and Concrete and Aggregates segments. Revenue in the sector increased 18% driven primarily by 7% improvement in Cement sales volume improved pricing in both Cement and Concrete, and the result of the Concrete and Aggregates acquisition. Operating earnings increased 19% again reflecting the improvement in sales volume and pricing.

Moving to the Light Materials sector on the next slide. Improved Wallboard and Paperboard sales volume was offset by an 8% decline in Wallboard prices, which led to a 4% decrease in Light Materials revenue. Quarterly operating earnings in our Light Materials business declined 7% to $48 million, reflecting lower net sales prices, partially offset by higher sales volume. In connection with the expansion of our papermill, we took an extended outage during the quarter to tie in new equipment. The impact of this outage was approximately $1.5 million during the quarter.

In the Oil and Gas Proppants sector. third quarter revenue was down 48% and we had an operating loss of $7 million. During the first nine months of fiscal 2020, operating cash flow increased 9% to $321 million, and capital spending was down slightly to $84 million. We completed the acquisition of a small Concrete and Aggregates company during August with the purchase price of approximately $30 million and in advance of our pending acquisition of Kosmos Cement Company as well as the company separation. We have paused the share repurchase program to manage our capital structure.

Finally, our debt to cap ratio was 51% at December 31, 2019, with the $126 million of cash on hand. Our net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio was approximately 1.8 times at December 31. In advance of the Kosmos Cement acquisition, we established a $665 million term loan facility in December providing us with a low-cost financing source. Post-acquisition pro forma leverage will be at or slightly below three times with good visibility to delever post acquisition. Kosmos Cement assets will increase our annual cement capacity by nearly 25% to more than 7.5 million tons and provided immediate contribution annual cash flow.

As Michael said, we expect the pending acquisition to be completed during our fiscal fourth quarter, we are very excited about this opportunity to grow our Cement position and to welcome a talented group of new employees to Eagle. Thank you for attending today's call. We will now move to the question-and-answer session. Catherine?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions] And it looks like our first question is coming from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Your line is open.

Trey Grooms -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. So, I guess the first one is on, excuse me the Kosmos acquisition. So, getting a deeper into that geographic market, I guess it's also bringing more long haul or maybe more barging into the picture with the seven terminals. Can you talk about kind of how that plant fits there in your network in the market that it serves, what's the kind of demand and pricing been like in that market and kind of the outlook, and then also how this plant might compare to others in your network just from a efficiency or profitability standpoint?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Trey, when we look at the fact that we're very excited as Craig and I alluded to, to get this asset into our network. When we looked at this transaction opportunity, we're really looking at our Cement plants as a network. We have Illinois Cement, Fairborn Cement and Sugar Creek that are all in this area and this further enhances the kind of knit those together, provide you know better service to our customers throughout this area.

As per the plant itself, it was redone in 2002 sort of a modern plant with a large capacity plant. So, we feel is a perfect fit for us to expand our reach and expand our capacity in that market and as I said admitting that together as one unit in that area.

Trey Grooms -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that, Michael. And then kind of sticking with the Cement, there had been some more kind of competitive behavior. I guess, or maybe more competitive than we would have thought at this stage in the cycle within some of your cement markets anyway over the last few years. And it seems like the stage should be set for pretty good pricing realization this year given the demand outlook. Can you talk about any early reads that you might have around that cement price increase specifically as we look into the spring season, given that backdrop. And then kind of tying that in, any early comments around the Wallboard pricing for January as well? Thank you.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Trey, when we look at it, we're out in all of our markets with the Cement price increase. It's too early to really tell what the market is going to the -- market will determine that price and it's too early to tell what that's going to be. We're fairly -- we're out everywhere with it. Wallboard is the same thing. We're out with the Wallboard price increase and we just don't have enough time yet to see where that's going to settle out. We'll have more information here over the coming months to see what the market determines that price to be.

Trey Grooms -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay. We'll stay tuned. I'll pass it on. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Brent Thielman with DA Davidson. Your line is open.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Great, thank you. Good morning. Could you guys clarify the price increases you're out within the market on Light and Heavy?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Brent, this is Craig. On the Cement side, we are out generally around $8 a ton in every one of our markets. And generally, those are for the spring time closer to April 1st. There's a couple of markets that we were up in January, but it's generally in $8 in April. And then the January, the Wallboard price was a January price that we were communicating to customers.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

And then on Wallboard, maybe you could just talk about the demand environment, it seems like some of the early signs are looking healthier, you guys seem to sort of outperform before we see in the broader market. You talk about what you're seeing in some of your regions just from a demand perspective on the Wallboard side?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. You know with the underlying fundamental look good. We've consistently said, we see low-single-digit growth in the foreseeable future and that's kind of what we're planning around and there is nothing to deter us from planning around those numbers. Low-single-digit growth.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Good morning. I was wondering if you could touch a little bit on the demand, you're seeing in some of your regional cement markets. I think you've talked about strength in Texas and Colorado and some weakness in Illinois, just wondering if you had any kind of additional color on the regional market strength?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Anthony, I think as we've said in the past, we are seeing improvement in all of our markets and the rate of -- the pace of increase might be slightly different, but I mean, to put it into perspective, the state of Texas in calendar '19 was pushing 18 million, 19 million tons of demand. We continue to see good growth here in the State of Texas. That is an enormous number. But even across our other states, we're seeing it. You're also seeing states becoming more creative or more aggressive in the way they finance their infrastructure spending. You mentioned Illinois, Illinois is a good example where they put some spending budgets in place in order to improve their infrastructure and that doesn't happen overnight, it happens over a period of time. But we are seeing improvement across all of our markets.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then just on the Paperboard side, as you think about costs for 2020. Last year we saw this collapse in OCC prices. I guess they exited the year $20, $25 a ton kind of historic lows. As you think about Paperboard costs for the next 12 months, specifically on OCC, are you expecting kind of prices to remain near these levels. And any other kind of cost items that you call out?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it's really with regards to the OCC pricing. We're projecting that you know, it's a very cyclical market, but it's been fairly flat over the last, with a slightly declining trend over the last 12 months and we think that it's kind of stabilized and we're projecting stabilization of that price through, there will be minor variances on a month-to-month basis, but overall we're expecting a fairly flat to slightly rising trend there.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Yes, hi, good morning, everyone. I'm wondering if you could talk about how you're thinking about your Heavy side network, assuming these, the transaction that you highlighted earlier closes. How do you view other wide space within the US geography just qualitatively, what markets would you view as attractive? Any parameters would be helpful.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, I'm not going to speculate on what becomes available or what markets come open. But if you see our historical performance of where we've invested our money, you could see this one does, so a wide space in our network and you know that's kind of how we look at our network as a whole, how we bring those plants together and that's what we use our strategy going in those wide spaces.

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay. And in the past, you folks have spoken about really focusing on land lock parts of the network and obviously we've got some barge exposure on the proposed assets. Can you just talk about how your thought process there has evolved. The opportunity in terms of why this particular part served asset is interesting to you folks?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. It really results again around the location in the -- how it fits with our other facilities. So, when you look at that asset and how it ties together, like I said, little bit earlier was, we have Illinois Cement, we have Fairborn, we had Sugar Creek. This completes a nice area and the extended reach, while we haven't been participating in that market in the past. This does have extended reach that it fills all those markets with it. So, it's, how we determine is barges one mode of transportation, where we've done rail and truck in the past with it, and this just completes that network in that area and ties everything together, so that's why this was a very attractive opportunity for us to participate in.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from Adam Thalhimer with Thompson, Davis. Your line is open.

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. First question on Kosmos. Is the pricing similar in that region to the rest of your wholly owned regions?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it will be pretty close to the average.

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

And then how much volume should we bake in, should we use that $1.7 million figure?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Similar to a lot of the US industry utilization rates are pretty high. We don't own it today, but certainly utilization rates pretty high in that marketplace.

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

Okay. Just getting ready for when it closes. And then on the paperboard side pricing down 11%. You said there were some pricing provisions in our long-term sales agreements that brought that down. What's going on there. How does that play out?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

So, like we've said in the past, our most of our volume is contractually sold. Those contracts have inflaters and deflaters, based on the price of inputs. And so, there is the price and the major one being OCC or recycled fibers and is that price has come down, the price we charge the customers comes down with it. So, it's been pretty consistent.

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

Okay. And then Paperboard volumes, would you begin the full 20% increase in Q2 of '20 or does it just kind of layer in?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

No, I think as Michael alluded to the outset. This will be a ramp over a period of time and it will come up in March, April timeframe, it takes a little while to line out of machine and then over the next several months, we'll begin to move in the market. But it will be a little it will ramp over a broader period of time than that.

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Hey, guys. And your Cement business assuming demand held up OK in the fourth quarter, it looks like you're running north of your reported clinker capacity this year. So, is there more you can do to unlock more supply and does this causal acquisition free up some of that capacity as well for you?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So you know, if you look at, we always look at it as a 12 month rolling. So, we do have some less busy times of year that we are able to produce more clinker and store that clinker. We also on the last call, talked about some of the additional brand capacity we had matched into our facilities where we're able to take that clinker out of the storage and grind it and sold in market. So, we still feel comfortable with that side of running these plants full year and storing that clinker for the busier times of year to meet some of that increased demand.

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got it. When we think about calendar 2020 using your outlook of low-single-digit growth, does it feel like you have enough supply to meet that demand. Are you kind of running the situation you run full out. I imagine you're pretty close. So with that backdrop, what kind of conversations are you having with your customers on pricing in. Are they approaching those conversations only differently. Just wanted to make sure they have supply secure?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, we've been able to satisfy our customers' needs. We think we're going to be able to satisfy those needs through this next calendar year. Also we as Craig stated, we were out with the $8 number across that market and we're having those conversations currently with the customers to see where that settles out. So yeah.

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got it. And I guess switching gears to Wallboard. We look at your volumes pretty solid in the choppy housing environment, but lagged the region broadly. Curious what's driving that and if you saw any increased competition in the quarter with ASP slipping a little bit?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I would tell you that we're very happy with where our markets are performing, our regions as they have done recently have outperformed the national average. And we're excited and look the latest print on homebuilding was pretty positive, and we think calendar 2020 will be another good year for volumes.

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay. And just one last one for me on Wallboard. Did you see any pre-buy in the quarter. I know it gets kind of noisy and how should we think about that in the upcoming quarter normalizing on that stuff out. Thanks.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Phil. I don't think there was any significant pre-buy activity, and as you said, it's a little noisier as demand is improving, pre-buy was easier to spot four or five years ago. It's a little less meaningful today than what it was. We just see homebuilding starting to improve.

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thanks, I appreciate the color.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Josh Wilson with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. First off, just a housekeeping question, can you give us a sense of where your Wallboard price was exiting in the quarter. So, we know where to start the January from?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

It was pretty consistent with the quarterly average.

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Okay. And what was the revenue impact of the outage in the Paperboard plant.

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Is it as much of a revenue impact as it is a cost efficiency impact.

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

So then, in terms of the margin benefit year-on-year adjusting that out, what were the drivers there?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Look OCC prices as we've been saying or very pretty low even and energy prices remain low, but OCC is the major driver there on the margin.

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Got it. And just to reask the prior question then, you feel like your market share is OK in Wallboard and there is nothing timing related, or something like that?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Our market share hasn't changed more than 40 basis points in five years.

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Okay. And then last one for me, your inventory days and payable days were down a fair amount year-on-year was timing as well or is there a shift or some activity there?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think, as Michael said on the Cement side, we made some investments on grinding that's allowed us to eat through some of the clinker inventory and we're always managing working capital to the best of our abilities and to maximize cash flow. But in a lot of it is a seasonal timing as well.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Paul Roger with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Robert -- BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Hi, this is Robert [Phonetic] on for Paul Roger. I wanted to start by asking, can you comment on the outlook for cost inflation and sort of remind us of your hedging policy, actually for natural gas? Thank you.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

As we sit here with the majority of our cost inputs. No, no significant inflation, you think about things like OCC natural gas was more of the Light side. On the Heavy side, it is energy oriented with electricity and fuels, and you're seeing some inflationary pressures. But nothing unusual there across the business platform. In terms of hedging, yeah, with gas well below $2 now. We're making, we are putting some hedges in place for certainly the next 12 months and looking out to fix those costs into these very low levels.

Robert -- BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Great, thank you. And just one follow-up. Obviously, you will be closing the Kosmos deal shortly. Are you -- would you look at making more investments into Cement, obviously despite the upcoming separation. Is that something that you would look at doing?

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You know right now, follow with it, we always look at any opportunities that come available. I don't want to really discuss on, it would be open to investing more into the thing. What we're concentrating on right now is, as you know, the separation of these two companies that will happen in the summer months. So, that's where the management team is focused right now.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adrian Huerta with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Adrian Huerta -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Thank you and thank you for taking my question. Two very specific questions, one on Cement freight cost, you said in the prior quarter that that cost were stabilizing. Can you tell us how the cost was this quarter and the second question is on the separation cost that it was a little less than $3 million in the previous quarter. What was the amount in this quarter? Thank you.

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, let me answer your first question, your last question first. So, we were $3.4 million as we highlighted in the press release for, what I'll call business development costs that certainly included the separation. It also included fees around and costs associated with the Kosmos acquisition that we incurred just prior to the announcement. And then in terms of Cement freight and I'd say freight in general, we're not seeing major changes there. The trend has been pretty, pretty flat benign for the last 12 months. And again, there is always a little bit of cost pressure there. But nothing like what we saw two years ago.

Operator

Thank you. And we have a follow-up from Brent Thielman with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Hey, thanks. Just one quick one on the Kosmos transaction. In the original release you guys talked about this $120 million in tax benefits. Can you give more color to that and kind of how you would -- we could think about you recognizing that once this is done?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's a great question and it's a very important part of the investment. So, tax reform, we are able to immediately expense or deduct a significant amount of the purchase price. We're going through that process right now, but using the Fairborn allocation as a barometer, there'll be a pretty significant depreciation deduction here in year one as right upon closing of the transaction, that will very likely move us into NOL [Phonetic] positioned from a tax perspective. And now we'll be able to be carried forward with both of the companies even post separation. So, we will be in the enviable position of minimal taxes being paid. So again, all about free cash flow and that will be improved as a result of this. But that's where that $120 million comes from is that immediate deduction for a big chunk of the purchase price.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Okay, that's fair. Actually, one more quick one on the paper mill. Do you expect any more outages or downtime here as this expansion gets wrapped up that might have some impact on the cost basis?

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that will, as Michael said, we'll wrap it up here this spring, so very likely in March, will be a pretty extended outage even more so than this past quarter, and we'll certainly quantify that for everybody on the call, but that will, that will impact our March quarter to tie in the new, the total equipment package.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Yeah. Okay, all right, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time, I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Michael Haack for closing remarks.

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, thanks. Thank you everybody for attending the call today and we'll look forward to speaking with you again in the summer.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 33 minutes

Call participants:

Michael Haack -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Craig Kesler -- Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer

Trey Grooms -- Stephens -- Analyst

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

Philip Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Joshua Wilson -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Robert -- BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Adrian Huerta -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

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