For the fourth day in a row, Ferroglobe PLC (GSM -0.72%) stock went climbing, finishing the day up 17.3%. For the fourth day in a row, we haven't a clue what's behind its rise.
Ferroglobe stock began rising on Nov. 7, a day ahead of Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election, and at a time when his defeat seemed assured (said the pundits). True, the stock jumped again on Nov. 9, after Trump's success was assured. But that was more a continuation of a trend than the start of something new, and was accompanied by absolutely no news of note. Then, today, Ferroglobe stock really ran off to the races -- up 17%.
So what's going on with Ferroglobe? Clearly, it's nothing tied to the election results, and this makes the most likely culprit the company's third-quarter earnings report, which is due out the other side of this weekend, on Monday.
What do we know about that report? Perhaps less than what the folks buying Ferroglobe hand over fist ahead of the report know, but perhaps we know only just as much as they do.
What we know is that in contrast to the year-ago quarter, when it earned a $0.20 per share pro forma profit, this time around Wall Street is looking for Ferroglobe to book a loss -- $0.01 a share is the consensus. Revenue last year was $175 million, though, and Wall Street is looking for a very big increase indeed -- all the way up to $415 million.
Whether Ferroglobe merely meets expectations, or manages to turn in another profitable quarter where Wall Street expects a loss (which would explain this sudden enthusiasm for the stock) remains to be seen. In any case, the mystery should be cleared up by Monday. Until then, I see no (confirmed) reason to get excited and join in the buying frenzy.