Shares of The Trade Desk (TTD 4.15%) have fallen 17% since hitting all-time highs just four trading days ago. There's been no news out of the fast-growing provider of programmatic advertising solutions, and one analyst suggests that the threat of Amazon (AMZN 1.30%) crashing its market is weighing on The Trade Desk shares.
It's been a few weeks since reports began to circulate that Amazon is working on an ad-supported TV service. Stifel analyst John Egbert is out with a new note this week, pitting the recent pullback on what he considers misplaced concerns regarding Amazon's potential entry in this niche that has been so lucrative for The Trade Desk over the years. Reports surfacing this summer suggested that Amazon is working on a proprietary video ad-serving platform for its growing streaming video service, but Egbert argues that it seems as if the leading online retailer is only working on video ad server technology instead of an ad-buying software tool that could compete with The Trade Desk's programmatic solution. He sees the sell-off as an opportunity, and he's boosting his price target on The Trade Desk in the process.
Image source: Amazon.com.
Trade agreements
Stifel's Egbert is sticking to his bullish buy rating on The Trade Desk, and he's taking the time to raise his price target on the shares from $130 to $155. It probably bears pointing out that his price goal is below that all-time high of $161.50 that The Trade Desk hit late last week, but it represents a reasonable 16% of upside off of Tuesday's close.
Egbert isn't just jacking up his price target. The analyst is also lifting his mid- and long-term estimates for The Trade Desk based on new advertisers coming on board and a new product launch helping improve spending on the platform.
The Trade Desk continues to impress with every passing quarter. Revenue rose 54% in its latest quarter, well above the 41% it was forecasting just three months earlier. The Trade Desk doesn't provide bottom-line guidance, but the $0.60 per share in adjusted earnings it posted blew past the $0.44 per share that Wall Street pros were targeting.
It doesn't hurt to keep an eye on Amazon if you are an investor in The Trade Desk. Amazon has disrupted plenty of industries by making a big splash with cutthroat pricing and an appetite to scale. However, even if Amazon were to make a push for the connected TV market -- the worst-case scenario -- this is just one of the many niches that The Trade Desk's platform serves. The Trade Desk offers programmatic solutions for mobile, audio, display, social, and native markets that will all continue to thrive if Amazon were to be gunning for The Trade Desk in the connected TV and video segments.
Corrections are just part of the growth process. The Trade Desk is one of this year's hottest stocks, and at last week's peak, the shares had more than tripled year to date. Breathers provide entry points for companies that are doing things right, and right now, The Trade Desk continues to exceed expectations.
