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Forecasting in the business and investing world is much more an art than a science. Most "experts" who try to make binary predictions don't even get their guesses right half the time. But that won't stop host Chris Hill from asking his colleagues to make "reckless predictions."
In this segment from the MarketFoolery podcast, he asks Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross for one and gets a pair of prognostications that could ease the minds of Facebook (FB 3.77%) shareholders. He also goes out on a limb with a sports prediction.
A full transcript follows the video.
This video was recorded on Jan. 8, 2019.
Chris Hill: Before we get out of here, give me one reckless prediction for 2019.
Andy Cross: We talked a little bit about the FAANGs. I mentioned Facebook. I think Facebook ends up profitable for the year. Reckless prediction here, of course. Not investing in Facebook. I own shares. Not investing just for one year. Bought the stock around $140. Really hit some struggles. We've talked a lot about them over the year on the show here and written a lot about them. I think that stock rebounds a little bit in 2019, continuing to figure out how to better solve the challenges they're having. I think they're not done. They have some work to go. Also, from a reckless-prediction side, I would be surprised if Sheryl Sandberg is not there by the end of the year.
Hill: I think you buried the lede. [laughs] That's the more surprising thing.
Cross: Could be. It's not my stronger reckless prediction of the two. I think Facebook sees a little bit of a rebound. I think they get some things right. They've hit these struggles and had some culture clashes internally. That's been a struggle. I think they get that worked out this year.
Can I go with a non-financial, non-stock reckless prediction for you, Chris?
Hill: Absolutely!
Cross: I think Ireland wins the World Cup of rugby played in Japan this fall. They take down the All Blacks in New Zealand. They had a great 2018. I think they have a shot to dethrone the All Blacks in New Zealand at the Rugby World Cup held in Japan this fall.
Hill: I would love to see that. I can also think of a couple of listeners that we have in New Zealand who are very angry right now.
Cross: Listen, they're a phenomenal team! They're like the Patriots. This is why it's reckless. Last year was great for them in rugby.
Hill: In the wake of last night's college championship game, I thought we were going to make a prediction about the University of Michigan.
Cross: [laughs] I went there, man. I don't know if Harbaugh's there by the end of the year. I don't know that. But I was not ready to make that prediction. Listen, my wife, with Urban Meyer leaving OSU, she said, "Hey, maybe you have a shot to actually beat Ohio State this year." I was going to make that my reckless prediction, but I didn't go there.
Hill: Somewhere, there's an offshore betting outlet that has a pairs bet that they've just created. It's basically, who lasts longer in 2019 in their current place of employment: Jim Harbaugh or Sheryl Sandberg.
Cross: True!
Hill: Let's bring in our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd. Dan?
Dan Boyd: Andy, I love your enthusiasm about the Irish rugby team, but I just want to say, I don't think it's a reckless prediction to predict that the winner of the Six Nations Cup in 2018 is going to win the Rugby World in 2019. I don't consider that reckless.
Cross: I don't know, I think the gap between New Zealand and the rest of the world is still pretty high. I'll disagree with you on that. But thanks for the call!
Boyd: That's like saying, "The No. 1 and No. 2 teams are playing in the Super Bowl. I think the No. 2 team is going to win." Real reckless, Andy!
Cross: I don't know, man! Nobody thought the Eagles were going to win the Super Bowl last year!
Hill: There you go. Although, I will point out, Dan does have experience as a college rugger.
Cross: He may know better than me. I'm just excited to see if they can take down the All Blacks.
