Rapid growth has already sent shares of Invitae (NYSE:NVTA), Wix.com (NASDAQ:WIX), and Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS) skyrocketing. But it may still be the early innings for each of them, according to these three Motley Fool contributors. The potential to develop existing markets more deeply could cause sales and share prices to continue climbing at all three companies. Read on as these Fool.com contributors explain how:
- Technological advances are making Invitae's genetic screening more useful, less expensive, and more popular.
- New web tools could accelerate growth at Wix.com.
- Direct-to-consumer sales could be a boon to apparel maker Canada Goose.
Get in on genetic testing
Todd Campbell (Invitae): The age of personalized medicine is fast approaching, and Invitae's genetic screening tools could be a key cog in its success.
Invitae is already enjoying rapid growth because of increased demand from patients and would-be parents interested in genetic insights. The company's test volume more than doubled in 2018, and because average revenue per test improved to about $500 (excluding one-time Medicare payments), Invitae's revenue increased 117% to $148 million last year. In 2019, the company expects its growth will continue, so it's guiding for revenue of $220 million.
The costs associated with completing its tests are falling as its test volume increases. The company's cost of goods sold per sample declined 24% year over year to below $250 in the fourth quarter, and that helped gross margin increase to 53% last quarter from 33% in Q4 2017.
Invitae is losing money because it's plowing money back into its products to make them more valuable. Those losses are likely to continue for a while, but the sheer size of Invitae's addressable market suggests it could be money well spent. For instance, over 1.7 million Americans every year receive a cancer diagnosis, and many of them could benefit from genetic screening. As Invitae's tests become more robust, providing insight into increasingly more indications, its addressable market could someday be everybody.
Why surf the web when you can be part of it?
Nicholas Rossolillo (Wix.com): Even though shares of website-building phenom Wix.com fell by double digits after reporting fourth-quarter 2018 results, the stock has still nearly doubled in value since the beginning of 2018. And for good reason: Revenue climbed 42% on the year, and free cash flow (money left over after basic operations are paid for and after purchase of property and equipment) increased 44% to $102 million.
The pullback following the earnings report could be the buying opportunity some investors were waiting for. There was some disappointment in 2019 guidance -- revenue is expected to grow 25% to 26% in the first quarter and on the year -- but management said that all the growth it expects to realize from new initiatives is not fully factored into the numbers. Those initiatives include things like a new online order and payment system, customer communications and management tools, and enhancements to increase website speeds. Besides, who's going to complain about expansion north of 20%, especially coming from a company that is now hauling in over $600 million a year in sales?
Plus, as Wix.com adds more users to its website development and management services -- everyone from small personal blog writers to aspiring e-commerce stores to established enterprises -- it's finding new ways to monetize that user base. As it does so, the story is becoming less about growth and more about profitability. Thus, even though the 25% to 26% guidance for 2019 is a deceleration from years past, free cash flow is expected to shoot up at least another 33% to $135 million.
Wix.com is still a fast-growing internet company with lots of room left to grow -- even though it has already handsomely rewarded shareholders.
Direct to the consumer, with a fleet of flagships
Jamal Carnette, CFA (Canada Goose): Canada Goose has more than doubled, and shares are up approximately 300% since its 2017 IPO. Despite the strong performance, a recent sell-off presents an opportunity to scoop up shares of this luxury coat and apparel market on sale.
Canada Goose shares tanked 33% in December as concerns about a boycott in China scared investors. China's anger was tied to Canada's arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou at the behest of the United States. The bearishness, while understandable because CEO Dani Reiss summed up the opportunity in China as "massive," appeared overstated. Later, Canada Goose went on to beat analyst estimates in its fiscal third quarter and even raised full-year guidance for its top and bottom lines.
Check out the latest earnings call transcripts for companies we cover.
Still, the long-term drivers for growth remain strong. During the third quarter, total revenue increased by 50% over the prior year. More importantly, revenue in the higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment increased by 75% during the period. Canada Goose has doubled down on growing the DTC channel, improving its online store and building out its single-brand retail stores (dubbed flagships), opening five alone during the quarter.
Despite the focus, the company has only 12 flagship stores at this point. It has only scratched the surface on brand recognition and in its massive China opportunity. Growth-oriented investors would be well suited to try Canada Goose on for size.