Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) lowered its outlook for the United States economy on Monday. The financial juggernaut now expects to see a higher 4.6% slowdown in U.S. growth for 2020. That's compared to a previous estimate of 4.2%. Goldman's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, sees the increase in COVID-19 cases domestically as a hindrance to the economic rebound.
The forecast wasn't all grim. Goldman Sachs still sees growth jumping 5.8% next year. By this September, it thinks that the economy can be back in growth mode, since there is potential for the U.S. to adapt to a safer reopening that has been demonstrated internationally.
There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the economic reopening in the United States. Different states have taken different approaches to reopening for business, and the case spikes display those trends. This creates an impasse where state and federal governments need to find a way to impose the social distancing necessary to cut down infection rates, while also allowing commerce to thrive.
Goldman Sachs provided some input on that as well. The investment bank reported that mandated face masks could partly substitute for renewed lockdowns that would otherwise cause domestic GDP to fall 5% as cases rise in many states in the South and West.
Markets have been seemingly unphased by recent case spikes. The S&P 500 is only down around 190 points from its highs prior to the outbreak and market sell-off. Second-quarter earnings reports and COVID-19 cases in the second half of the year will determine whether the market can hold that momentum.