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Can Netflix More Than Double Subscribers by 2030?

By Danny Vena – Sep 1, 2020 at 4:05PM

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One analyst is making the case for 159% growth over the coming decade.

Even in the wake of record-setting growth, it appears the best may be yet to come for Netflix (NFLX 2.50%). As the result of widespread stay-at-home orders, the company has attracted 25.86 million new paying customers during the first six months of this year. This brought the company's total subscribers to 193 million, but that number could be dwarfed by what's yet to come.

Shares of the streaming giant got a boost today as the result of a bullish analyst note that posited that Netflix's subscriber numbers could more than double over the coming decade, climbing to between 475 million and 525 million by 2030. 

A man sitting with his fingers interlaced behind his head watching a bank of monitors showing graph lines.

Image source: Getty Images.

RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney updated his price target on Netflix to $610 per share, while reaffirming his outperform (buy) rating. The analyst estimates that Netflix is a staple in 66% of U.S. households, but its international penetration rate sits at just 29%. Mahaney expects that to change over the next 10 years, with the streaming service eventually making its way into 57% of global fixed broadband households, nearly double the current rate.

Mahaney believes that Netflix "has achieved a level of sustainable scale, growth, and profitability that isn't currently reflected in its stock price," he wrote. "We also view Netflix as one of the best derivatives off the strong growth in online video viewing and in internet-connected devices."

That's not all. Mahaney also estimates that Netflix's pricing power will enable the company to generate average revenue per user (ARPU) of between $16 and $22, as much as double the current amount of $10.80. 

The analyst became increasingly bullish in the wake of user surveys conducted in several countries. Customer satisfaction hit record highs in the U.K. and India, at 81% and 92% of users, respectively, who said they were "extremely" or "very satisfied" with Netflix.

Danny Vena owns shares of Netflix. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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