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Why Peloton Stock Soared 29% in September

By Beth McKenna – Updated Oct 3, 2020 at 1:31PM

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Shares of the home fitness company continued their COVID-19 pandemic-driven climb.

What happened

Peloton Interactive (PTON 3.16%) stock rocketed 29.4% in September, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. For context, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell 3.8% and 5.2%, respectively, last month.

In 2020, shares of the connected fitness specialist, which held its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2019, have gained 279% through Friday, Oct. 2. The broader market has returned 5.1% over this period. 

Middle-aged man riding a Peloton bike in a bedroom.

Image source: Peloton Interactive.

So what

We can attribute Peloton stock's strong performance last month to a continuation of its COVID pandemic-fueled momentum, along with the company's Sep. 10 release of fiscal fourth quarter 2020 results that crushed Wall Street's expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

Since the pandemic began, investors have been aggressively bidding up shares, enthused by the company's robust quarterly results and optimistic that the trend toward working out at home will continue even after the global crisis ends.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, revenue skyrocketed 172% year over year to $607.1 million, sprinting by the $566 million analyst consensus estimate. Growth was driven by a 199% rise in connected fitness product revenue to $485.9 million, and a 99% increase in subscription revenue to $121.2 million.

Connected fitness subscribers soared 113% to 1.09 million. These customers remain extremely satisfied, as evidenced by the quarter's low average net monthly churn rate of 0.52%. 

On the bottom line, the company recorded net income of $89.1 million, or $0.27 per share, compared to a net loss of $47.4 million in the year-ago period. This result -- the company's first profit -- easily beat the earnings per share of $0.10 that Wall Street was anticipating.

Now what

For the first quarter of fiscal 2021, Peloton management guided for revenue of $720 million to $730 million, representing growth of 218% year over year at the midpoint. It expects connected fitness subscriptions to grow about 135%.

For the full fiscal year 2021, the company projects revenue of $3.50 billion to $3.65 billion, representing growth of 96% year over year at the midpoint. And it expects connected fitness subscriptions to grow about 90%.

Beth McKenna has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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