With new coronavirus cases in the U.S. soaring in October, consumers are expected to do more online shopping this holiday season ... a lot more. Software company Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is calling for a 33% year-over-year uptick in the country's e-commerce spending in November and December, thanks to shoppers' wariness of setting foot in an actual brick-and-mortar store, CNBC reported today. That would take the season's online shopping tally to a figure near $189 billion.

That growth outlook is the more conservative one tendered by Adobe Analytics, too. Should the recent resurgence of COVID-19 lead to renewed shutdowns, it said, the nation's e-commerce industry could see growth on the order of 47% in the coming two months.

Computer keyboard with an online shopping cart key.

Image source: Getty Images.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) will garner a massive share of whatever online spending materializes. During its quarter ending in December of last year, the e-commerce giant raked in $53.7 billion worth of product sales in the United States alone. The company has seen strong double-digit sales growth this year, with shoppers turning to the web to steer clear of physical stores.

But rivals are more ready to compete online this year than they've ever been, after being forced to adapt to the challenges of the pandemic. Analytics site Digital Commerce 360 recently reported that 44% of the nation's biggest 500 brick-and-mortar retailers now offer curbside pickup, up from only 7% before the pandemic. This added option will help fuel the big e-commerce growth Adobe is modeling.

These physical stores enjoy another edge on their online-centered rivals: Despite the projected growth of online sales this holiday season, roughly three-fourths of this year's shopping should still be done in-store, according to Adobe.

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