Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) released a new survey today on the coronavirus vaccines now in use, and the companies behind them, putting a number on the potential sales of the high-demand medications.
According to the bank's estimates, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stands to reap around $11 billion on global sales of its vaccine in 2021. The team of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) should do marginally better, earning $11 billion to $12 billion, excluding China.
Both Moderna's mRNA-1273 and Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162b2 (known under the brand name Comirnaty in Europe) have been authorized for emergency use in the U.S. and the 27-country European Union, among other jurisdictions.
Doctors surveyed by Bank of America collectively believe that around 74% of their patients will be inoculated by the end of this year. The bank noted that this was a higher figure than measured in the last vaccination survey, taken in November.
As for vaccine preference, Bank of America analyst Tazeen Ahmad wrote that "Interestingly, [the doctors surveyed] expect 50% of their patients will be on mRNA-1273 by mid-2021, followed by Comirnaty at 32% and others (e.g. AZN, JNJ) at [approximately] 20%, after factoring in considerations of ultra-cold storage requirement and vaccine availability."
The two "others" Ahmad refers to are AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.
Moderna's mRNA-1273 has less-stringent storage requirements than the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which must be kept at ultra-cold temperatures.
Those revenue figures are striking, particularly given that young biotech Moderna's revenue for all of 2019 was barely over $60 million, while BioNTech earned $121.5 million that year. Pfizer, of course, is a far larger company, but $11 billion or so will still have an impact. Its last full-year revenue figure was just under $51.8 billion.