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Tesla's Stock Is Way Overblown and Only Worth $150, Analyst Says

By Rich Duprey - Apr 7, 2021 at 11:00AM

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It's as if the market thinks it is the only EV maker in the world, he says.

Even though Tesla (TSLA -6.42%) is a "minor player" in the industry, one analyst says, its stock is so overvalued at $700 per share that its $660 billion valuation is almost equivalent to the combined valuation of the entire U.S. and European automotive markets. 

According to Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin, the market has lost sight of fundamentals when it comes to the electric vehicle (EV) maker. Although it is doing well and is a market leader, "People are just assuming that Tesla has no competition when they put this kind of lofty valuation on the company," Irwin said yesterday on CNBC's Squawk Box.

He believes the stock is worth no more than $150 per share.

Red Tesla Model Y

The Tesla Model Y. Image source: Tesla.

All the good news from Tesla's recent first-quarter deliveries report is priced into the stock, the analyst said. 

The EV maker reported producing 180,338 vehicles in the first three months of 2021 and delivering 184,800, well ahead of the 168,000 vehicles Wall Street was expecting Tesla to deliver.

The production numbers consisted solely of Model 3 sedans and Model Y crossover SUVs; it made none of its luxury Model S sedans and Model X SUVs. But it plans to ramp up their production.

To justify its current stock price, Irwin said, Tesla needs to come out with more-advanced vehicles. "They would really need to deliver on the robo-taxis, the fully autonomous vehicles," he said, but instead, rival EV makers are introducing "vastly superior technology."

So far in 2021, Tesla stock is down 2%, but the EV maker's shares are up 620% over the last 12 months. "I see this as a market dislocation," Irwin said.

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