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An Analyst Sees 63% Upside for Trulieve Cannabis

By Rich Duprey - Updated Apr 16, 2021 at 1:13PM

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Wall Street has been singing the praises of the medical marijuana company.

As marijuana legalization gains momentum at the state level, multistate operator Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF -2.71%) continues to burnish its reputation with Wall Street analysts, who see the pot grower outperforming the market.

Joining the crowd looking for Trulieve to set the pace is Cowen Group (COWN -0.26%) analyst Vivien Azer, who just initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating and $65 price target. 

That's 63% above where Trulieve closed trading on Thursday, though it's somewhat below the target some of her peers have set. Canaccord recently raised its target on the stock to 90 Canadian dollars (about $72 per share) while Stifel has a price of CA$118 ($94).

Prescription bottle labeled medical marijuana

Image source: Getty Images.

There's good reason for the optimism. Trulieve cannabis sales account for more than half of all medical marijuana sales in Florida, or around five times greater than runner-up Curaleaf. It also has a customer retention rate of about 70%, meaning consumers are highly satisfied with its product.

With a presence in five other states, Trulieve is looking to replicate its success as sales continue to expand.

Revenue more than doubled in the fourth quarter in March to $521.5 million, and the pot grower notched its third consecutive year of profitability. Full-year earnings came in at $63 million, or $0.53 per share. Adjusted EBITDA of $251 million was up 99% from the year-ago period.

Trulieve might not be able to maintain such substantial market share as it expands, as there is not much of a moat for any one company to establish, but the confidence Wall Street is placing in it seems to be warranted.

Rich Duprey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Trulieve Cannabis Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote
Trulieve Cannabis
$12.92 (-2.71%) $0.36
Stifel Financial Corp. Stock Quote
Stifel Financial Corp.
$62.81 (3.44%) $2.09
Cowen Inc. Stock Quote
Cowen Inc.
$38.53 (-0.26%) $0.10
Curaleaf Holdings, Inc. Stock Quote
Curaleaf Holdings, Inc.
$5.88 (2.62%) $0.15

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