There are different strategies to capture value in the stock market. Some investors bet on blue-chip companies with stable revenue and profits, while others bet on comeback stories like MGM Resorts (MGM 3.63%) poised to bounce back by pivoting to new growth drivers.
Let's dig deeper into how sports betting and the COVID-19 vaccine rollout can transform this casino company's fortunes.
Management boots its outlook for sports betting
MGM has big hopes for sports betting and online gambling in North America. The addressable market is expected to be worth $20.3 billion by 2025. The company has increased its market share guidance from between 15% and 20% to up to 25%. And its betting app, BetMGM, already boasts a market share of 22% in active jurisdictions as of February 2021.
Management expects to generate $163 million in revenue from sports betting and iGaming in the first quarter and a jaw-dropping $1 billion in full-year 2022. With a projected EBITDA margin of 30%-35%, this new business could supercharge both top and bottom-line growth.
MGM's brick-and-mortar footprint, particularly on the iconic Las Vegas strip, gives it unparalleled brand recognition in the industry. This cachet can help accelerate customer acquisition and give BetMGM a competitive advantage over digital-only rival DraftKings, which lacks physical casinos. The real-world properties also allow MGM to offer a unique omnichannel experience with a loyalty reward program that includes real-world experiences.
The casino recovery is heating up
Sports betting isn't the only reason to be optimistic about MGM. The company may benefit from a recovery in the brick-and-mortar casino industry amid the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
Analysts at Bank of America expect a rebound in regional casinos as pent-up demand drives older gamblers back to properties close to home. The firm notes impressive March data -- with several states reporting all-time records up to 11% above 2019 levels. This corroborates an earlier report from Morgan Stanley analysts, which predicts a "fast, strong recovery" in Las Vegas based on airline ticket sales and hiring activity on the strip.
MGM's net revenue fell 53% to $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. But a recovery in Las Vegas and the regional casinos, which historically made up 47% and 29% of revenue, respectively, could bolster the company's top line in the coming quarters.
It's not too late to hop on board
MGM's share prices have risen 32% year to date as investors get more optimistic about its sports betting and traditional casino businesses. But with a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of four and a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13, the stock is still a relatively good value.
Diversified competitor Penn National Gaming boasts a trailing P/E of 77, while DraftKings (which has no history of profits) reports a P/S of 29.