If a new analysis of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) proves accurate, the already-popular retail stock is poised to nearly double very soon. Brian Nowak, an analyst at ever-influential investment bank Morgan Stanley, issued a research note Monday in which he said that in a best-case scenario, the stock could hit $6,000 per share in 2023. That's a whopping 83% above the present level.
Nowak bases his argument on the price/earnings to growth (PEG) rates of other top retailers and consumer goods staples companies, many of which hover around 3. In his words, "Bull Case Closer to Retailers/[consumer goods] Staples Implies [around] $5,000-$6,000 Share Price: AMZN currently trades at [around] 1.2 [times] '22 on a PEG basis, a [roughly] 30% discount to its median tech peer group."
Even for those who think that evaluation might be extreme, the prognosticator indicates that Amazon still has a long runway. "As shown, even valuing [Amazon] at a 1.7 [times] PEG (in line with mega cap tech) would imply a $4,500 share price as '23 earnings come into view. But this PEG would still be a [roughly] 45% discount to [Walmart]...and we argue [Amazon] could warrant a higher PEG," he wrote.
Nowak's not-ideal-case $4,500 per share -- his official price target on the shares -- would still mean a significant upside of 38% on Amazon's most recent closing stock price.
His analysis is a compelling one, as the disparity between the PEG levels is stark. It adds another bullish log in the fire that has been Amazon's stock in recent years.
Perhaps it's resonating with investors. On Monday, Amazon stock rose by 1.5%, while the S&P 500 stock index fell by 0.3%.