As investors, generating market-beating returns goes well beyond identifying great businesses. It's one step in the process, but investors then have to determine whether or not that company will exceed the market's existing expectations. That's where value comes from.
One way to help find the companies most likely to outperform is by simply waiting. When there is an overall market decline, security prices on average tend to fall correspondingly. If investors are waiting for that next crash, then these are three companies everyone should be on the lookout for.
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1. Match: Online dating isn't going anywhere
Match Group (MTCH 2.46%) is an online dating conglomerate that's home to popular apps like Tinder and Hinge. Match Group's apps allow users to build their own personal profiles and filter through thousands of potential mates with the swipe of a finger. The company generates revenue through subscriptions and in-app transactions.
While the trend of online dating still carries a stigma among some demographic groups, it has grown as the most popular way for couples to meet today. In fact, in 2017, roughly 40% of heterosexual relationships started online, according to Statista. That number was less than 20% in the decade prior. With this trend in mind, it's perhaps not very surprising that Match Group has seen such strong growth.
In the first quarter of 2016, Match Group reported that it had roughly 5.1 million monthly subscribers across its suite of apps. Five years later, the company's most recent quarterly report shows that Match Group now has 11.1 million subscribers, a 118% increase. And not only is Match Group growing its users at a steady rate, but each of those users is also paying 21% more on average.
In addition to the sheer growth of Match Group's apps, the business model also benefits from scale. As apps add users, it creates a greater selection of possible mates, so the attraction for new users to join increases. This enables the company to spend less money acquiring customers, leading to better profitability.
Currently, Match Group's market cap sits at around $38 billion, which gives the company a price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of roughly 47 times -- well above the market average. If its stock declines due to a broad market pullback, this could be a great company to own for long-term investors.
2. Wix: The engine for the internet
Wix.com (WIX 3.75%) is a drag-and-drop website-building platform that allows users to build the internet presence they desire. Although it started by simply offering tools for website building and hosting, the company has since developed into more of a digital operating system for businesses.
Companies of almost any type can run their operations through Wix's platform thanks to its comprehensive suite of tools. Whether it's calendar management for yoga studios, order intake for restaurants, payments solutions for retailers, or plenty more, Wix helps businesses manage it. CEO Avishai Abrahami said at the end of 2020 that he thinks Wix can power 50% of anything new built on the internet within five to seven years.
Wix is already the largest low-code/no-code website building platform, with more than 200 million registered users globally, and it continues to grow that number by more than 2.5 million users per month.
This lead in user count also has a compounding effect as it grants Wix access to more data and use-cases, which helps the company identify opportunities and iterate on its platform faster than its peers. It currently offers more than 800 templates, whereas its main competitor, Squarespace, offers a little more than 100. This allows a wider range of users to find a template that is suitable for them without needing to make too many changes.
While Wix currently expects to grow revenue by 30% in 2021, the company is still unprofitable on a GAAP basis since it continues to invest heavily back into its business. With these reinvestments in mind, the market is currently pricing in some growth as Wix's stock trades at roughly 10 times its expected 2021 sales. In any sort of pullback, this is a company with plenty of growth that could be worth adding to your portfolio.
3. Olo: Off-premise orders are here to stay
Olo (OLO +0.00%), which is short for Online Ordering, provides large restaurant chains with a customizable and comprehensive digital ordering solution. From a sleek front-end customer interface to an intricate back-end solution for picking the optimal delivery option, prominent brands like Dairy Queen and Shake Shack can process orders from just about anywhere.
Olo currently has more than 400 different multiple-location restaurant brands, with 71% of them subscribing to all three of Olo's offerings. It generates revenue through both fixed subscriptions and on a per-transaction basis, which means that as its customers do better, Olo does better.
So it's not surprising that the pandemic accelerated growth for Olo, driving revenue up almost 100% in 2020. As more and more customers have opted to order off-premises, Olo has been there each step of the way. But while the pandemic did help accelerate growth in online ordering, lower spending on restaurants as a whole slightly offset growth.
Even as more customers begin to dine-in during reopening, it's probably safe to assume that mobile ordering is a trend that's here to stay. As restaurants feel the need to adapt to that, Olo will provide the best solution to do so without creating too much dependence on a single delivery-service provider like DoorDash.
While the future for Olo certainly seems bright, the stock is fresh off its public market debut and currently trades at 29 times its trailing-12-month sales. Given the premium valuation, this is a stock that investors should watch closely during any downturns.
