Of course, none of us have a crystal ball that can tell us what any asset will be worth in the future. But when it comes to Bitcoin (BTC 2.03%), it can be especially hard to predict. In this Fool Live video clip, recorded on May 24, Fool.com contributor Matt Frankel, CFP, and Industry Focus host Jason Moser discuss where the leading cryptocurrency could be in a decade from now.
Jason Moser: Let's fast forward 10 years. Are we there in 10 years where Bitcoin can be seen by most as a reasonable store of value? I would assume that the way things are going, we're probably going to continue to grow, at least, folks who see the merits of cryptocurrencies in whatever shape or form. There's going to be, I think, continued adoption, albeit probably somewhat slowly for the masses, but at some point or another, maybe we do get there. It's not to say we would never get there.
Matt Frankel: There you go, trying to bait me again. I think it's a mistake for anybody to think of it as a given that we are eventually going to get to mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. That's still very up in the air at this point. During some of our Bitcoin data reviews, one of our experts that I interviewed, I'm not sure which one off the top of my head, but one of them referred to what's going on right now as an inflection point, where we're either going to see Bitcoin accelerate into mass adoption or not. It's not going to keep going at its current pace, where you're going to have 10% to 20% adoption, that subset of the population just believes in Bitcoin forever. You're either going to see it really start gaining traction or go the other way. I really think it's a very binary outcome. I personally don't think it's going to get there. I'm very skeptical of the long-term use case of Bitcoin. When you hear about all these projects being done on the blockchain and things like that, like MasterCard, and Visa, and all these other fintechs have their own blockchain divisions, that are developing blockchain finance programs and things like that, generally that's on the Ethereum (ETH 3.29%) blockchain. I could see that having more staying power than Bitcoin, but I really don't think you're going to see Bitcoin become a mainstream currency. I just don't. I like the concept, I like the technology, I've mined Bitcoin, I've used Bitcoin, I lived off Bitcoin for a day in Las Vegas just to see if I can do it. So like I said, I say this with peace and love. I just don't see it getting there.
Moser: Yeah. I tend to agree with you. But by the same token, as an investor, one of the things I've just learned is, you just always keep an open mind. I'm going to keep an open mind to it. It doesn't mean I'm interested in it. I don't care about it. I still don't see the use case for it. I agree with what you're saying. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if 10 years from now, maybe we did see some change in the mentality or some some material used cases for it and other cryptos. It's going to be an interesting story to follow, there's no question about it.
Frankel: Sure. If you and I are wrong and it does gain mass adoption, in 10 years, Bitcoin could be $1 million.
Moser: Yes, finite supply. Absolutely could be.
Frankel: My prediction is that in 10 years, Bitcoin will either be over $500,000 or under $1,000. Nowhere in the middle. I'm either going to be really right or really wrong. Say what you will, over the past 10 years of Bitcoin's existence, it hasn't done a lot of just puttering along. It's either gone up or down or straight up or straight down. So if the past 10 years continues, Bitcoin's $1 million in 10 years, but interest can really evaporate quickly if it doesn't pan out. So I think it's going to be really high or really low.
Moser: Yeah. I think that interest is going to be key. If something like 20% of the population right now has dabbled a toe in the crypto space, we're going to need to obviously have a lot more than that to create the ongoing interest. Otherwise, you're right. It will have a hard time.