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Is Trupanion Still a Buy After the Rally in June?

By Kody Kester - Updated Jul 12, 2021 at 11:13AM

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The company doubled down on its commitment to growth targets with its creation of an International Business EVP position.

The announcement last month that pet insurance company Trupanion (TRUP 4.66%) was appointing 30-year animal health industry veteran Simon Wheeler as its first executive vice president of international business sent the stock up 28% in June, comfortably outpacing the S&P 500's pedestrian 2%.

A trifecta of tailwinds

Wheeler's three decades of industry experience should be a huge boon to Trupanion as it looks to double its addressable market of veterinary hospitals by 2035, so it is understandable that the market cheered. As EVP of international business, Wheeler will be responsible for expanding Trupanion's presence in Australia, as well as launching operations in Japan, the UK, Brazil, and Western Europe — adding millions of pets to Trupanion's addressable market.

Management's announcement last October that the company was forming a distribution alliance with Aflac (AFL 0.44%) in the U.S. also brings the potential for the same to occur in Japan, where Aflac's policies cover a quarter of households with its cancer and medical insurance offerings.

Citing a shift in nomenclature "from pet owners to pet parents, which indicates that pets are considered ... a part of [the] family these days," researchers at Global Market Insights forecast that the worldwide pet insurance market will compound at 7.7% annually, taking industry revenues from $6.9 billion in 2020 to $11.6 billion by 2027.

Considering that Trupanion's $500 million in 2020 net sales were good enough for 7% category market share during the year, there is clearly considerable room for the company to increase its dominance in a steadily growing market by leveraging Wheeler's expertise and Aflac's distribution might.

Trupanion remains a reasonable buy for patient investors

Wheeler will assume his new position this October, which will represent the beginning of Trupanion's long international growth runway and what will likely be a continuation of robust top-line growth in the years to follow.

Factoring in an expansion in global pet insurance market share from 7% in 2020 to 10% by 2027, Trupanion's revenues would more than double from $500 million to a staggering $1.2 billion over that time period. That's 4 times the current $5 billion market capitalization, suggesting there is reasonable upside from the current share price.

Despite the run-up in the stock last month, Trupanion appears to be worth consideration from investors with a longer time horizon as the global pet insurance megatrend plays out and the company gains market share from its brilliant partnership with Aflac.

Kody Kester owns shares of Aflac. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Trupanion. The Motley Fool recommends Aflac. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Trupanion Stock Quote
$68.09 (4.66%) $3.03
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Aflac Incorporated
$59.43 (0.44%) $0.26

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