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Why Jamf Holding Is Down More Than 20% Today

By James Brumley – Nov 12, 2021 at 2:41PM

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Newly unveiled competition looks like it's poised to start taking an immediate toll on the top line.

What happened

Shares of Jamf Holding (JAMF 9.01%) are down more than 20% as of mid-session Friday following Thursday's post-close release of its third-quarter results, although it arguably wasn't Q3's numbers behind most of the day's rout.

So what

On the surface the company seems to be in good enough shape. Last quarter's revenue of $95.6 million is up 36% year over year, and while operating income fell from $11.7 million a year ago to $2 million last quarter, operating per-share profits of $0.01 per share are in line with estimates and sales topped expectations of $93.7 million. This progress extends a similar growth trend, which is expected to persist for the foreseeable future.

Investors, however, aren't as convinced of this premise as they were at the beginning of this week before Apple (AAPL 0.79%) unveiled a new product.

Falling chart plotted on a chalkboard.

Image source: Getty Images.

Called Apple Business Essentials, the new platform helps iOS app developers better manage iPhone (and iPad) users' experiences with their devices. It's a concern for Jamf shareholders as it presents a prospective competitor to Jamf's sole business. Indeed, shares of Jamf had already fallen 15% over the course of Wednesday and Thursday in response to Apple's announcement. The absence of any convincing reassurance offered during Thursday evening's quarterly conference call that the company would be able to maintain its present growth pace didn't help.

Adding fuel to the sell-off is Jamf's fourth-quarter guidance. The company's looking for revenue of between $99 million and $101 million versus a consensus estimate of $102.6 million.

Now what

Given its three-day 34% plunge, it's arguable the market has reacted far too harshly, setting the stage for a big bounce once investors are less panicked and more level-headed about Jamf's probable future. For speculators willing to take a big risk, the sheer depth of this sell-off makes for an enticing possibility.

For the average investor, though, there's too much uncertainty materializing in just the latter half of this week to step in on this dip, as tempting at it may be. Jamf's entire business really is helping app developers utilize Apple's iOS operating system. Even if Apple's current version of Business Essentials isn't going to upend Jamf's business, something disruptive like it will eventually take shape.

James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Apple and Jamf Holding Corp. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long March 2023 $120 calls on Apple and short March 2023 $130 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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