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Why Peloton Stock Fell Off the Bicycle Today

By Rich Smith – Dec 3, 2021 at 12:55PM

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Deutsche Bank says investors should buy now and be patient. But growth investors are an impatient bunch.

What happened

Despite the best efforts of Deutsche Bank, shares of stationary bike and treadmill maker Peloton Interactive (PTON 7.29%) took a tumble in Friday trading and are down 3% as of 11:30 a.m. ET.

So what

In a note out this morning, Deutsche Bank announced it is initiating coverage of the hard-hit bicycle stock, assigning a "buy" rating and a $76 price target to shares that have lost more than 60% of their value over the last 12 months -- and basically predicting the stock will rise more than 75% over the next 12 months.

"It's never fun to lead off a Buy report with a 'patience required' asterisk of sorts," muses Deutsche in its report, which was covered on today. Nevertheless, "That's exactly what we find ourselves doing here," admits the analyst. And the reason Deutsche is doing this is that, troubled as Peloton may be, the analyst sees "asymmetrical risk/reward scenarios" in the stock.

"In a normalized, fully reopened economic environment," Deutsche believes that Peloton still "has plenty of momentum to regain operationally" once the pandemic passes and things begin settling down into a new normal in which some people exercise at the gym, others exercise at home, and still others do a bit of both.

Cyclist nurses a hurt knee while sitting next to a fallen bicycle.

Image source: Getty Images.

Now what

How long will it take this "new normal" to arrive?

At least "a few quarters of improved execution" will be required, cautions Deutsche Bank. And that warning may be the reason impatient investors are shrugging off today's upgrade and continuing to sell the stock. But if you buy Deutsche's reasoning and look 12 months out, the analyst still sees Peloton returning to growth in the future.

By that time, of course, the stock price will already have recovered as more and more investors notice the turnaround. Thus Deutsche's conclusion: If you think Peloton has a future, the time to buy the stock is now.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Peloton Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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